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USWNT vs. Portugal: Best bets for the crucial World Cup matchup

By Alyssa Clang | Last updated 7/31/23

It all comes down to this: one game to decide the USWNT’s World Cup knockout future. It’s been a while since the stakes were this high for the Americans this early in the tournament; in 2019, the USWNT cruised through the group stage with three wins from three and qualified for the knockout rounds without a problem. In 2015, however, things looked awfully similar to how they’re shaping up now.

During the 2015 tournament the USWNT kicked things off with a good-but-not-great 3-1 victory over Australia (sound familiar yet?) The team followed that up with a hard-fought draw against Sweden, a top-ranked European opponent (surely it sounds familiar now.) The USWNT entered the final round against a relatively unknown Nigeria side needing a win or a draw to advance, and it secured that win by the skin of its teeth with a halftime goal from Abby Wambach.

Sub in Portugal for Nigeria and 2023 is a perfect mirror of 2015. The USWNT, then, has experience fighting for survival in the final group stage game. But how will that experience help them in this World Cup full of shocking upsets? Is there anything about Portugal that makes them a better or worse opponent for the USWNT? And how can we bet on the match to take advantage of all of it?

Scoreline

The USWNT has faced Portugal 10 times and has a shiny 10-0-0 record against the Iberians. It’s also outscored Portugal 39-0 in those instances. That’s right: not only has Portugal never beaten the USWNT, it’s never even scored against it.

While there have been a few blowouts between these two teams, the most recent clash (a meetup in 2021) was decided by just one single goal. With Portugal wanting victory just as much as the USWNT, it’s hard to see this one turning into a goal fest; both teams will defend with everything they have. Scoreline bets at 0-1 (+490) and 0-2 (+450) in favor of the USWNT feel like the safest call.

However: while Portugal hasn’t scored against the USWNT, it’s already racked up plenty of "firsts" at this tournament, from its first World Cup appearance to its first World Cup goal and victory. Portugal has improved massively over the years and didn’t get here by accident. With the USWNT defense looking shaky against the Netherlands, perhaps Portugal is due to buck its trend and finally get that elusive goal. If they do, betting on them will pay handsomely: 1-2 in favor of the US is going at +3400.

Goalscorers

There’s something interesting happening within the bookmaking when it comes to USWNT forward Sophia Smith. She’s -410 to have a shot on target but +115 to score at any time in the game. Have her goalscoring odds fallen after the USWNT’s draw with the Netherlands? Considering the Dutch swamped the midfield and made it impossible for Smith to get service, that hardly feels like her fault. +115 to score isn’t a big-money bet, but it does feel wise given Smith’s hunger and ability.

USWNT viewers at this World Cup are all raving about Rose Lavelle, the injured forward currently serving as a super sub. She’s not fit enough to play entire games but she’s lively and creative whenever she’s subbed in. While Lavelle has yet to score in this tournament, she’s at +230 to score in this game … and given her experience netting crucial, tournament-defining goals for the USWNT, those odds feel pretty good. She’ll have fewer minutes than, say, Smith to get things done, but she’s due for a breakthrough.

Like Lavelle but worry about her scoring as a substitute? Try betting on her to make an ‘anytime assist’ instead. At +160, that’s a steal — she’s a brilliant creative playmaker and excels at creating goalscoring opportunities for her teammates.

Goalscorers and cards

We’re getting to the point in the tournament where things get, for lack of a better word, feisty. No one wants to get eliminated early, and that leads to some wild challenges and dirty tackles in the name of keeping the other team from scoring.

USWNT captain Lindsey Horan is a tough, no-nonsense attacking midfielder who isn’t afraid to fight for her place on the field. She got one yellow card against the Netherlands and could’ve easily had two if the referees were a bit more liberal with their calls. At +120 to score or be shown a card, Lindsey just might be the safest bet out there: she’s managed plenty of both at this World Cup so far.

The USWNT takes on Portugal on Tuesday at 3 a.m. ET / Midnight PT. The USWNT has to win or draw in order to advance to the knockout rounds — if it loses (and the Netherlands wins against Vietnam) its World Cup journey is over. If you're willing to stay up for the match, you're guaranteed a great show.

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