Premier League Game of the Week: City and Spurs in a heritage battle

These two played out a classic the last time they met at the Etihad. Spurs, buoyed by a strong performance from Swedish playmaker Dejan Kulusevski, went 2-0 up in the first half, only to lose 4-2 once City came alive in the second. It served as the beginning of the end for Spurs manager Antonio Conte, and it marked one of the first times City manager Pep Guardiola dug into his own fans for not providing enough support. “They were silent for 45 minutes,” Guardiola lamented. “They booed because we were losing, but maybe it’s like our team. Maybe they’re too comfortable because we have won four Premier Leagues in five years. After we scored a goal they reacted, but pssh, that’s not the point.”

Guardiola will hope for more noise from his home fans in this crucial matchup, one that will set the tone for both clubs as they enter the festive season. While Guardiola’s watching his own supporters, we’ll be watching for these bets:

Result / Both Teams to Score — Opta’s Premier League Supercomputer, an excellent reference for soccer-loving stats nerds, churned out a remarkable prediction for this match. It gave City a 67% chance of victory — the highest chance of victory of any Premier League team competing this weekend. (Yes, higher than Villa over Bournemouth. No, we can’t believe it either.) To say this game is tipped firmly in City’s favor is an understatement: the odds clearly have City dogwalking this one. But remember who its facing: a Spurs team wholeheartedly committed to playing a high attacking line regardless of the consequences. Yes, Spurs should lose this. But we’d be shocked if they don’t nick a cheeky goal somewhere over the course of 90 minutes. At +150, a City win with both teams scoring feels like a great shout.

(For bettors interested in a moonshot, why not throw it back to last year’s result and add in another element? A City win with at least one Spurs goal and Spurs being ahead at halftime is currently being offered at +1600. It happened in January; it could well happen again.)

Player to Score or Assist — With all the attacking talent at City’s disposal, just about everyone on the team is expected to be involved in goals. But the odds are inexplicably longer for our old friend Rodri, the devilishly talented defensive midfielder who often serves as the heartbeat of Pep’s City lineup. Rodri has slammed in some crucial goals in his day--who could forget his decisive goal in the Champions League final last season? At +160 to score or assist against Spurs, we think the odds have him underrated this week.

Player to be Carded — Spurs’ Argentinian hardman Cristian Romero still suspended from his red card against Chelsea, and his replacement Pedro Porro is set to face his biggest challenge yet: City’s Belgian dribbling machine Jeremy Doku. We’re big fans of Porro and Doku in this space, and we think their battle will be one of the most interesting parts of this City-Spurs game. Porro’s best weapon in this fight will be his ability to deploy a yellow card tackle at the right time … and that means he’s extremely likely to be booked at some point during this match. At +150 to see yellow, we think Porro’s headed straight for the books.