Premier League best bets: End-of-season midweek madness

It's Matchday 31 of the Premier League and everything is coming up Liverpool after Manchester City and Arsenal's damp squib 0-0 draw last weekend. The Reds are in first place in the Premier League table with 67 points, with Arsenal in second with 66 and City in third with 65. "It's not in our hands," City coach Pep Guardiola said of the title race after the Arsenal draw. "If you are top of the league — like we've been before — you are favorites."

This midweek matchday, then, is all about whether Liverpool, Arsenal or City will drop the ball when facing lower-table opposition. If they can't beat each other, these teams simply have to beat the rest.

Where are the best bets in these three crucial matches? We think they're here:

Arsenal vs. Luton Town — Wednesday, 2:30 p.m. ET, Peacock. This match looks easy on paper, but if you cast your mind all the way back to the reverse fixture in December you'll remember it's anything but. Luton gave Arsenal absolute hell back at Kenilworth Road and put three goals past its famous defense. When Arsenal's Declan Rice scored in the 97th minute to win the match 4-3 for the Gunners, it felt like a positive omen for the title race. The old Arsenal would never.

The Gunners will hope that this return fixture is less dramatic; hosting it at the Emirates should help sap some of the energy out of things. (No shade to the Emirates: Kenilworth Road is just an absolute cauldron.) We think Arsenal should take this one without too much trouble. But given Luton's impressive showing last year, we're inclined to think it might snatch a goal or two. Betting on an Arsenal win with at least one Luton goal feels interesting at +150.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa — Wednesday, 3:15 p.m. ET, Peacock. Poor City: while its closest competitors take on opposition in the relegation zone, it has to square up to irrepressible Aston Villa. Villa beat City 1-0 in the return fixture and looked unshakeable throughout, with forward Leon Bailey having the game of his life along the way. While City will no doubt be wary of Villa after that defeat, it shouldn't worry too much. Villa is shouldering a host of injuries and the team that lines up this Wednesday against City will look entirely different than the one that beat it in December.

City has absences too, but not where it counts. Many believe that Villa's unexpected victory over City came because of Rodri's red card suspension; City has lost every single game it's played without Rodri for the last two years. Villa will have no such luck this Wednesday. Rodri's back in the starting lineup, and we think he's due for a goal. We're backing him to score against the Villans at +300.

One interesting thing about Rodri, though? He's just two yellow cards away from serving another ban. He's likely to pick one up against Villa and will then be in hot water for the rest of the season. Other teams in City's future — Luton, Spurs, Brighton, Forest, Wolves, Fulham and West Ham — would do well to remember that.

Liverpool vs. Sheffield United — Thursday, 2:30 p.m. ET, Peacock. Pep's right about Liverpool: being in first does put the club in pole position for the Premier League title. So does its stress-free run-in to the end of the season: Liverpool has the easiest stretch of games by far of the title-chasing triad. It kicks things off against last-placed Sheffield United this Thursday with the goal of a) getting three points to keep one finger on the trophy and b) not picking up any new injuries along the way that could complicate things.

Liverpool should win this one handily, and the odds support that: the team is at -1100 to take home the three points. Fans looking for more lucrative bets might want to consider a Liverpool win with a clean sheet at -120 or Mohamed Salah scoring two or more goals at +160.