Which contract negotiations will define the 2023-24 NHL season?

No more speculation. No more predictions. No more previews. The NHL regular season is underway, and we can focus on the actual hockey…right? Of course not. We love the sport for what happens on the ice, but the machinations of it have huge ripple effects, especially when it comes to contracts. Just ask the Ottawa Senators about that. With Shane Pinto still unsigned and the team lacking the salary-cap space to change that yet, he’s encased in carbonite. In what is supposed to be a big playoff-push year, the Sens opened their season Wednesday without Pinto, their No. 3 center, plus No. 2 center Josh Norris, still working his way back from shoulder surgery.

Pinto is an obvious point of attention as the last high-profile unsigned RFA for this season. Theoretically, his situation should be resolved in a matter of days, perhaps even by the weekend if GM Pierre Dorion can clear the cap space. But plenty of prominent free agents, restricted and unrestricted, begin 2023-24 unsigned for next season despite being eligible to sign extensions. Which of their negotiations, or lack thereof, will have us holding our breath the most? Here’s an update on the big names bound for big speculation in the months to come.

Disclaimer for the contract comparables: each of the deals listed was signed before the projected salary cap increase, which will go to $87M-$88M by next season. So think of these comparables as the low end of the projections and adjust for inflation.

Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks (RFA)

Age: 24
Cap hit: $7.35M
Next contract comparable: Sebastian Aho, eight x $9.75M

Pettersson expressed during the offseason that he was in no rush to sign an extension despite the fact he was fresh off a monster season in which he racked up 39 goals and 102 points and tied for the league lead in shorthanded goals. Was the implication that he believes he can top that season and drive his price up even more?

It sounds like the Canucks’ side of the table isn’t so sure about a long-term extension in the present, either. A report from Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman this week indicated that Vancouver’s camp isn’t ready to commit if he isn’t ready to commit to them, though Canucks GM Patrik Allvin refuted the report and suggested he has a great relationship with Pettersson.

William Nylander, RW, Toronto Maple Leafs (UFA)

Age: 27
Cap hit: $6.96M
Next contract comparable: Timo Meier, 8 x $8.8M

In terms of the percentage of the cap his contract will eat, Auston Matthews’ extension was quite reasonable for the Leafs, enough so that they theoretically could have room for Nylander next season with the cap increase factored in. But can they justify meeting his reported $10M asking price when Mitch Marner will be eligible to sign an extension in July 2024 that would kick in for the 2025-26 season?

At every stop, Nylander has indicated he is totally Zen about playing this season without a contract, though he has expressed openness to negotiating in season, too. But how comfortable are the Leafs with Nylander as an “own rental” in 2023-24? It sounds like there is at least some degree of urgency, enough that, as GM Brad Treliving told reporters this week, the sides will “continue to work away in the background” on a contract. That’s better than neither side wanting to discuss a deal at all during the season.

Steven Stamkos, C, Tampa Bay Lightning (UFA)

Age: 33
Cap hit: $8.5M
Next contract comparable: Claude Giroux, 3 x $6.5M

The future Hall of Famer and Bolts' longtime captain Stamkos raised many an eyebrow last month when he expressed his disappointment with the total lack of contract discussion between him and the team. Rather than spout off clichéd damage control, Lightning GM Julien BriseBois was refreshingly frank in explaining his side of things, laying out plainly that, while Tampa wants Stamkos for life, it also has to carefully consider its cap situation and gather information before deciding a course of action.

So this chapter isn’t quite closed, is it? If the Lightning were to stumble in the first half of the season with Andrei Vasilevskiy out following his back surgery, and Stamkos made it to the new year unsigned, would trade talk start to fester? Knowing BriseBois, a.k.a. salary cap Houdini, the Lightning will find a resolution and retain their franchise icon. Florida’s lack of state income tax kept the AAV reasonable on Stamkos’ previous contract and could do so again on his age-34 deal.

Elias Lindholm, C, Calgary Flames (UFA)

Age: 28
Cap hit: $4.84M
Next contract comparable: Bo Horvat, 8 x $8.5M

Even after the Flames fired coach Darryl Sutter and parted ways with GM Brad Treliving, gloom hung over their offseason. They traded Tyler Toffoli and watched one report after another suggesting their other veteran pending 2024 UFAs, Lindholm, Mikael Backlund and Noah Hanifin, intended to leave once their contracts expire. But Backlund reversed course, signed a two-year extension and was named captain last week. Have the odds of Lindholm staying spiked as a result?

He indicated a few weeks back that he’s more than willing to entertain re-signing. As Daily Faceoff’s own Frank Seravalli reported this week, there’s mutual interest in getting a deal done but nothing seems to be imminent. The Flames, keep in mind, were a non-playoff team last year. If they’re out of contention come the winter and still don’t have Hanifin and Lindholm signed, GM Craig Conroy could suddenly be a power player with two key pieces to dangle at the trade deadline.

Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken (RFA)

Age: 20
Cap hit: $897,500
Next contract comparable: Jack Hughes 8 x $8M

The Kraken signed defenseman Vince Dunn to the richest contract in their short history last spring. When will they ink Beniers, the reigning Calder Trophy winner, to their first true franchise player contract? If they look at the New Jersey Devils for inspiration, projecting ahead on their No. 1 center could make sense as the path. The Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes deals paid them for what they hadn’t accomplished at the time they signed but have quickly evolved into serious bargains. Beniers’ two-way impact is similar to that of Hischier, who signed a seven-year deal at a $7.25M AAV in October 2019. With the cap jump coming, a deal closer to what Hughes signed in the fall of 2021 makes more sense.

Moritz Seider, D, Detroit Red Wings

Age: 22
Cap hit: $863,333
Next contract comparable: Charlie McAvoy, 8 x $9.5M

Jake Sanderson got his. Rasmus Dahlin got his. Is it Seider’s turn next? The big, minute-munching two-way force won the 2021-22 Calder Trophy and, after a shaky start, got his sophomore season on track for the most part. He is pretty clearly the most important piece of Detroit’s future. Seider hasn’t shown the offensive ceiling to justify a deal matching the $11M AAV going into Dahlin’s pocket. The Calder Trophy win should price Seider above the freshly signed Owen Power, too. I’ve seen Miro Heiskanen’s eight-year contract at an $8.45M AAV thrown out as a comparison, but Texas has no state income tax. Michigan does, so it’s fair to expect a higher number for Seider. A deal like Charlie McAvoy’s might make sense. McAvoy did play on a bridge contract before signing his eight-year extension, but Seider is only a year younger than McAvoy was at the time of signing and plays a similarly impactful all-around game.

Other key contract negotiations for 2024

Restricted Free Agents

Jeremy Swayman, G, Bruins
Carter Hart, G, Flyers
Martin Necas, RW, Hurricanes
Barrett Hayton, C, Coyotes
Kaapo Kakko, RW, Rangers

Unrestricted Free Agents

Jake Guentzel, LW, Penguins
Sam Reinhart, RW, Panthers
Devon Toews, D, Avalanche
Jonathan Marchessault, RW, Golden Knights
Chandler Stephenson, C, Golden Knights
Joe Pavelski, RW, Stars
Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Wild
Tyler Toffoli, RW, Devils
Brandon Montour, D, Panthers
Noah Hanifin, D, Flames
Tyler Bertuzzi, LW, Maple Leafs