No fly-by Knights: How far can Vegas take its run?

At the start of the 2017-18 regular season, you probably wouldn't have guessed that the last two Pacific Division teams standing in the Stanley Cup Playoffs would be the Vegas Golden Knights and San Jose Sharks. After both teams swept through their first-round series — Vegas against the Los Angeles Kings, San Jose against the Anaheim Ducks — that is what we're looking at when the second round begins next week.

San Jose's success is surprising because the Sharks are coming off of a first-round exit a year ago, lost Patrick Marleau in free agency, haven't had Joe Thornton for half of the season and, well, just don't seem to be as strong on paper as they have been in recent years. 

Vegas' success is a shock because it is a team that simply did not exist until this season and has already exceeded even the most wildly optimistic expectations anyone could have possibly had in its debut season. Just looking at back at the NHL's most recent expansion teams, it took the Atlanta Thrashers (now the Winnipeg Jets) until their seventh season to make the playoffs. In year 18 of their existence, they are only now on the verge of winning their first-ever playoff series — after winning their first-ever playoff game in 2018 as well. It took Nashville until year six to make the playoffs and year 12 to win a series. Minnesota made the playoffs in year three. Columbus didn't make the playoffs until year eight and is still in search of its first series win. 

Basically, every NHL expansion team over the past 30 years has needed, on average, five years to actually make the playoffs and sometimes more than a decade to advance beyond the first round. Vegas has done all of that in year one.

So now the question becomes: How far can this team actually go? 

There are a couple of things working in the Golden Knights' favor for a fairly deep run in the playoffs.

First, their current path is not the most daunting among playoff teams because of the NHL's divisional playoff format and the fact that the Pacific Division is not one of the stronger divisions. Their first-round opponent, the Los Angeles Kings, a hollowed-out shell of a contender that has rapidly declined in recent years, finished the season with the 12th best record in the NHL. Their second-round opponent, the Sharks, finished 11th. Vegas also won three of the four regular-season meetings between the two teams. 

Compare that to some of other top teams in the league. Nashville, winner of the Presidents' Trophy, is on the verge of eliminating the Colorado Avalanche (17th in the league) and would most likely have to play the Jets in round two — the NHL's second-best team. Tampa Bay, the top-seed in the Eastern Conference and NHL's third best team, will be rewarded with a second-round matchup against either the fifth or seventh best squad in the league. 

Vegas wouldn't have to play a top 10 team until the conference finals. 

Playoff success comes down to a lot of things. Having a good team and playing well at the right time of the year are at the top of that list. Getting favorable matchups helps, too, and the Golden Knights have definitely gotten that, at least based on how the NHL standings shaped up this year.

Another important factor in playoff success: Goaltending. Vegas is getting that, too.

There was a time in Marc-Andre Fleury's career where he was a nightmare in the playoffs. He was not just a goalie who struggled, but a goalie who was among the worst in the NHL — and at times, the worst in the NHL — when it came to his postseason performance. That time has gone. 

Over the past few years, Fleury has rewritten his playoff story. He was fantastic in the first two rounds a year ago for the Pittsburgh Penguins on their way to another Stanley Cup and downright dominant against the Kings in the first round this year, allowing just three goals in the four games. That comes after a regular-season performance where he finished among the top goalies in the NHL. It was a Vezina Trophy-worthy performance, even if it did not result in being voted a finalist by the league's general managers. 

Competition will get a little tougher in the second round because the Kings were, quite simply, a bad offensive team. Stop Anze Kopitar, and you stop the Kings. The Sharks are a little more balanced and a little deeper offensively, but with the way Fleury has played this season, he is going to give Vegas a chance every night. This is why the Knights made him the centerpiece of their initial roster. They just probably did not expect him to make this big of a playoff impact so soon in the franchise’s existence. 

Vegas may not have a true superstar anywhere on its roster, but the team does not really have a weakness, either. Its group of forwards amount to a top line, two second lines and then a third line. None of the trios fit the mold of a “fourth” line. Vegas has a defense that has turned out to be better than it looked on paper at the start of the year, and the Knights have a No. 1 goalie. Plus, at least for now, it has matchups working in its favor.

Is this a roster that is good enough to beat a Nashville or Winnipeg in the Western Conference Final? Or a Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Boston, Washington or Columbus out of the Eastern Conference? That remains to be seen. Quite honestly, the Western Conference Final might be where this incredible run comes to an end, but for right now, the Golden Knights have a real shot to make a substantial run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs because pretty much everything has gone their way this season.