Free-agent stock watch: Elias Pettersson angling for huge payday with great start

Welcome to the free-agent stock watch, a new feature here at Daily Faceoff wherein we take a look at five of the most notable pending restricted or unrestricted free agents to see how well they’re positioning themselves for big paydays on their next contracts.

We’re just about a month into the 2023–24 season, which presents us with an ideal opportunity to assess how some of the marquee players on expiring deals have come out of the gate in their contract years. Some have been good; others, less so.

There’s still plenty of hockey left to play, but for players like the first guy on our list, things couldn’t possibly be looking better at this juncture of the season …

Elias Pettersson (Vancouver Canucks)

Stock Watch: AAPL, immediately after Steve Jobs debuted the iPhone

Holy moly. Pettersson, who turns 25 on Sunday, is currently on pace for 144 points and has been a main driving force behind the Canucks’ unbelievable start to the 2023–24 season. If the season ended today, he’d probably be the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy as league MVP.

It’s been a dream start for Pettersson, who is slated to become an RFA next summer upon the expiry of his three-year bridge deal with the Canucks. You can forget all about his $8.82 million qualifying offer: $10 million per year likely won’t be enough for Pettersson.

If the rumor mill was to be believed, Pettersson wanted to wait and see whether the Canucks would be able to take that next step toward contender before he would be willing to commit long-term to Vancouver. Well, it looks like they’ve made it there. This might be the all-time high water mark for Pettersson’s value to this point in his career. He might be wise to sign while the stick is hot.

Elias Lindholm (Calgary Flames)

Stock Watch: Not good!

The Calgary Flames might currently be the best hockey team in Alberta, but that isn’t exactly saying much. Talk about a team that just can’t score at all. Andrew Mangiapane leads that team with four goals; Blake Coleman has three. After them, there are 10 different guys tied with two goals apiece.

Former 40-goal scorer Elias Lindholm is one of those players. Lindholm is the most consequential of the four notable pending UFAs on this Flames roster, and he also stands to lose the most money if his underwhelming start continues. Rumored to want as much as $9 million per year on a new deal, Lindholm won’t get anywhere close to that if he can’t pick up the pace.

Lindholm doesn’t seem to have any chemistry with Jonathan Huberdeau, who sat on the Flames’ bench for the entire third period of Tuesday’s win over the Nashville Predators. The days of the Gaudreau–Lindholm–Tkachuk top line are long over in Calgary, and Lindholm hasn’t proven himself capable of driving the bus by himself.

Sean Durzi (Arizona Coyotes)

Stock Watch: Buy, buy, buy!

If the Coyotes are going to make any noise in the Central Division this season, it’ll be on the back of their power play, which currently ranks sixth in the NHL with an impressive 26.5 conversion rate. And while Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz have continued to play huge roles on that terrific PP, it’s been new arrival Sean Durzi who has arguably had the biggest impact.

Durzi hasn’t just been a strong power play quarterback for this Coyotes team. He’s been its No. 1 defenseman, representing half of a formidable top pairing with lefty J.J. Moser. Durzi has averaged 23:01 per game, by far the most on this Coyotes team, including a team-high 17:59 at even strength. And his play-driving figures have been among the strongest in Arizona.

Acquired in the summer for the relatively paltry price of one second-round pick, Durzi is a pending RFA who is slated to command a huge raise over his current $1.7 million cap hit. The Coyotes are relatively desperate for long-term solutions on defense, and Durzi is as good a candidate as any they have to play a top-four role for the foreseeable future. He could earn upwards of $5 million per year on his next deal.

Victor Olofsson (Buffalo Sabres)

Stock Watch: Catastrophic

When Victor Olofsson broke onto the scene with the Sabres back in the 2019–20 season, he was regarded as one of the most exciting young wingers in the Eastern Conference. He scored 20 goals and 42 points in just 54 games with the Sabres in the pandemic-shortened campaign and went on to reach the 20-goal mark twice more in the following three seasons.

In more recent times, however, the sentiments surrounding Olofsson have shifted. Under head coach Don Granato, Olofsson has typically been deployed almost exclusively on the power play and very seldom in high-leverage situations at even strength. And this year, he’s barely been deployed at all.

Coming off a career-best 28-goal season in 2022–23, Olofsson has averaged a mere 11:25 of ice time in eight games with the Sabres this year. He’s sitting at just one assist and 11 shots on goal in those contests. Olofsson’s ice time has steadily declined in recent seasons, and it seems he’s arrived at the point where Granato no longer trusts him much at all. Olofsson will be in tough to make more than (or close to) his current $4.75 million salary on his next deal.

Sean Monahan (Montreal Canadiens)

Stock Watch: Resurgent

We’ll cap things off with one of the best feel-good stories of the 2023–24 season to date. Acquired from the Flames as a cap dump in the 2022 offseason, Sean Monahan seems to have rediscovered his game in Montreal and is currently the Canadiens’ leading goal-scorer.

Plagued by health problems in his later years as a Flame, Monahan started strong with the Canadiens in 2022–23 before suffering yet another season-ending injury. Nobody wants to see that happen again, and — knock on wood — so far, so good. Monahan has been the Canadiens’ most consistent forward, collecting six goals and 11 points in 12 games to kick off the 2023–24 campaign. Not bad for a guy on a one-year, $1.985 million contract.

The Flames paid the Canadiens a future first-round pick to take Monahan off their hands just over a year ago. Now, it looks like Monahan is playing better hockey than Nazem Kadri, the guy Calgary freed up all that space to sign. Monahan needs to get through this season with a clean bill of health, but if he does, it’s very easy to envision teams lining up to bring the 29-year-old center into the fold. He won’t get the $6.375 million he was making in Calgary, but Monahan should still command a decent sum.