Canadiens Goalie Montembeault a Starter in Principle Not Practice

It goes to show stats don’t tell the whole story, as, on the season, Montembeault has an underwhelming 2.93 goals-against average and .906 save percentage (SV%). Even the underlying stats are failing to do his effort level justice. In 2022-23, Montembeault finished among the league leaders in goals saved above expected, ingratiating him to analytics junkies everywhere. In 2023-24 so far though, he doesn’t even rank in the top 30 (per MoneyPuck.com).

Montembeault a Late Bloomer?

To be fair, Montembeault is currently tied with Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy in both that regard and games played (18). Few would question his overall credentials, which include a Vezina Trophy (2019). So, no one can say definitively whether Montembeault’s long since peaked or a late bloomer who’s just getting started. Even if he is, it should be fairly clear that he has a lot more to prove before he can be considered a legit starter.

Part of that is on Montembeault from a consistency perspective. Immediately prior to the two aforementioned wins, he lost consecutive games to the Lightning and Minnesota Wild, giving up eight goals on 44 total shots for a combined .818 SV%. However, part of that is on the Canadiens too, as they continue to go with a three-goalie rotation, which has arguably prevented the 27-year-old from finding a groove. It kind of goes with the territory of being a No. 1, playing the lion’s share of a given team’s games, you know? Otherwise, how does anyone know he can actually handle the workload?

Now, Montembeault is 9-5-3 and suddenly the only Canadiens goalie who has won more games than he’s lost. Taking that and his extension into account, there should be little doubt he’s the future in net for this franchise, even if we’re talking just into the medium term until the Canadiens trade for or draft/develop a star in net.

A No-Name Goalie Works Fine, as Long as Habs Win

Some may consider the suggestion unfair to Montembeault, as he’s almost literally made his career proving doubters wrong the last few seasons (including Hughes, apparently). And the Canadiens don’t necessarily need a big-name goalie, just one who gets the job done. Consider how the Toronto Sun arguably embarrassed itself by adding in a headline that referred to Anaheim Duck Lukas Dostal as a no-name goalie, after stopping a franchise-record 57 saves in a 2-1 overtime loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs recently. The paper then doubled down on the assertion after the Ducks called them out on it.

Keep in mind, with 39 career games played, Dostal has more experience than Joseph Woll, who’s emerged as the Leafs’ de facto starter (when healthy). So, to reiterate, the Canadiens don’t need a big-name goalie to win. They need to win with whichever goalie they have, at least eventually. Considering they are just .500 and a realistically insurmountable five points out of a playoff spot, they’re, well, not (winning), at least not with any regularity, Montembeault included.

Montembeault’s Path to Becoming a Starter

A few things need to happen before Montembeault can seriously be considered the solution in net. In addition to Montembeault becoming more consistent and the Canadiens finding a way to give him more starts, the team’s defense needs to mature significantly, even if all the right ingredients seem to be there, because the organization itself simply isn’t giving their goalies the best chance to compete every night, with a 29th-ranked 33.5 shots against on average.

The defense was only at 33.6 shots against in 2022-23. So, it’s going to take a while before that defense catches up to Montembeault’s play. Until that point, all Montembeault is doing effectively is proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that he’s the best goalie currently in the system. Aside from respect from his peers (and fans), that really shouldn’t be worth much, because all due respect to him and his recent strong play he still isn’t winning effectively, which is the true mark of a No. 1 in the NHL. If you’re not, you’re kind of just a placeholder.

It’s callous, sure. It’s unfair too, how Montembeault has had the misfortune of getting his chance with the Canadiens as they’ve been rebuilding starting from a last-place finish in his first season with the team (regardless of what the Habs themselves want to call it). However, to his credit, Montembeault earned his new contract, by proving himself as an NHL goalie when his resume had at one point been that of a career minor-leaguer. He continues to prove himself. It just won’t be today (or the foreseeable future) that he proves himself to be the starter many believe he can become, Hughes presumably included at this point.