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Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31). Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

NFL futures: Two longshots to back for Offensive Player of the Year

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 10/17/23

We're six weeks into the NFL season, and offensive roles and production are starting to settle in. Tyreek Hill is the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year thanks to his 814 yards and six touchdowns, and we completely understand and agree with his placement on this list. Despite that, there is still value on the board. We aren't rooting for injury, but it's a factor that bears repeating in the NFL futures market: if Hill were to miss time, someone else is winning this award.

With that in mind, we have two +5000 bets that seem worth a slight investment.

A.J. Brown (+5000 DraftKings)

Philadelphia's A.J. Brown has been on an absolute tear since a quiet Week 2 that saw him angry on the sidelines. Since that incident, Brown has finished with yardage totals of 131, 175, 127 and 131.

Now, he needs to score way more. He's only found the end zone twice, but this tear he's on feels sustainable. Brown is seemingly always open and always making plays in this Eagles offense at any level of the field.

If he were to keep up this pace, it's very realistic that we see the receiver sitting at the 1,800-2,000 mark by season's end. Justin Jefferson won OPOY last season with 1,809 yards and eight touchdowns, and Cooper Kupp won it the year prior with 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns.

The yardage precedent has been set, and if Brown can get there and push 10+ touchdowns, he's going to have a great chance at this award on one of the league's best teams.

Raheem Mostert (+5000 DraftKings)

One of the main stories of this season has to be the explosiveness of the Miami Dolphins offense. While Hill is the most likely to capitalize with an OPOY win should he stay healthy, running back Raheem Mostert is worth a look in this market.

If De'Von Achane comes up and continues the production we saw out of him, and/or Jeff Wilson gets healthy and starts siphoning off carries, this bet will look foolish. However, if Mostert remains the top running back on Miami, his stats are going to be outrageous.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

Mostert already has 11 touchdowns in six games, seeing work both on the ground and through the air. Based on this output, Mostert is on pace for 31.17 touchdowns this season. The NFL record for touchdowns is held by LaDainian Tomlinson, who scored 31 in 2006.

If Mostert sets the NFL record for touchdowns in a season, in what world is he not winning this award?

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