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NFL futures, 2 Kansas City Chiefs bets: Just the start for Patrick Mahomes and KC?
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

NFL futures, 2 Kansas City Chiefs bets: Just the start for Patrick Mahomes and KC?

The Chiefs have been to the Super Bowl three times over the past four seasons, winning twice, including this past season. Is this dynasty only just getting started?

Chiefs high-level odds

  • Wins: Over 11.5 (-140) | Under 11.5 (+120)
  • To Win Division: -165
  • To Win Conference: +330
  • To Win Super Bowl: +600

Kansas City was the last team standing, winning its second Super Bowl in four years to follow up a 14-3 regular season. Patrick Mahomes won MVP, his second, and he did this after losing his star WR in the prior offseason.

2022's success represented an important step for the Chiefs. Mahomes is on his second contract, which can sometimes hamstring a front office from adding the necessary talent. But, Travis Kelce remains a force at tight end, and the Chiefs have done a fantastic job of building up their offensive line, one of the best units in football.

That alone has helped the rest of the offense fall into place, and it shouldn't go without saying that Mahomes has the rare ability to truly elevate the players around him.

The skill-position players are a bit of a rag-tag bunch, with the hope that someone picks up the slack as a true playmaker. Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are jockeying for position at running back. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore project as the top WRs, and one or multiple of those names could push 1,000 yards receiving.

The defense is led by Chris Jones on the interior, and Kansas City has been investing first round picks into edge rushers the past few seasons, hoping that either George Karlaftis or Felix Anudike-Uzomah steps up in 2023.

Two futures bets to make on the Kansas City Chiefs

Under 11.5 wins (+120 DK)

Found under "Wins"
Please don't get this twisted. Kansas City is a Super Bowl favorite, and rightfully so. They have reached four straight AFC Championship Games and there's no reason to expect things to slow down considering they were able to build a Super Bowl winning roster even with Mahomes on his mammoth contract.

At this stage of the NFL board, value can be a bit harder to find. A +330 bet to win the conference doesn't move the needle for me, neither does a +600 price on a champion.

To me, an 11-6 type season for Kansas City isn't out of the realm of possibilities, though let the record show the Chiefs have logged 12+ wins in five straight seasons.

The schedule is tough. The Lions, Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins, Eagles, Bills, Bengals all represent some challenging games ahead, and then there's playing the Chargers and Broncos twice, two teams I've said already should be in the mix this season.

I don't love the juiced price on over 11.5 wins with this schedule, and I don't particularly love fading the Chiefs either. It's just the best value I'm seeing on the board. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 650.5 receiving yards (-115 CZR)

Found under "Futures Bets —Total Regular Season Receiving Yards"
No quarterback has a higher over/under in the passing yards market than Patrick Mahomes this season. As one might piece together, that means some of these Chiefs pass-catchers are sure to have some big seasons. #Analysis

Travis Kelce is likely good for 1100-1300 yards, but that certainly doesn't account for all of the offense. Last year, it was JuJu Smith-Schuster second on the team in both receiving yards (933) and targets (101), and he's now a Patriot.

The most likely benefactor I see is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who finished last year with 687 yards on 81 targets. MVS led all receivers in yards during the postseason last year, and he's penciled in as one of the outside starters for this season.

Tyreek Hill consistently hit 1200+ yards with Kansas City, and while I'm not saying Valdes-Scantling has that potential, the volume is certainly there for a strong statistical season. This line feels a bit soft with the unknown of how the Chiefs receiver room unfolds. If I'm taking a chance, it's backing MVS in his second year with Mahomes.

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