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NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds: There might be a bet to make after all
When we went through all the award futures this summer for the NFL, we purposely ignored any betting picks on Comeback Player of the Year. The reason there was quite simple: Damar Hamlin had the award in the bag, he just needed to play and it was his.
That's where this might hit a snag, and why there is some potential betting opportunity at play now. Hamlin has been a healthy inactive for each of the first two weeks. Can you really win CPOY if you never play a snap? We wouldn't put it past the narrative-driven NFL, but there are a lot of players off to a hot start who are deserving of consideration here.
Hamlin's odds were once -750 to win this award, and he's now just -150. That movement would only continue if he's not on the field. It's time to pounce.
Baker Mayfield (+2500 FanDuel)
Baker Mayfield has had as strong of a start as you could have expected, leading Tampa Bay to a 2-0 start and making big plays through the air and with his legs.
Mayfield has thrown for 490 yards and three touchdowns so far, but he's protecting the football and has connected on multiple big passes. Now, the Bucs may have had the benefit of facing some weak secondaries to start the year (which should continue this week against Philly), but it's noteworthy nonetheless.
What exactly is Mayfield coming back from, you may ask? Career purgatory, we'd say. Mayfield signed with the Panthers last offseason and was then traded to the Rams when his season started poorly. He appeared in just 12 games and certainly did not inspire much confidence heading into 2023.
Geno Smith has set the precedent that you can "come back" from just being a bad QB. If Mayfield gets the Bucs into the playoffs, he's going to be one of the favorites for this award.
Matthew Stafford (+1600 FanDuel)
For a more traditional bet, Matthew Stafford certainly looks the part. Stafford missed the final eight games of the season last year, and there were rumors floating around that the former Super Bowl winning QB was done. You may have forgotten, but it really felt like Stafford was going to hang it up before the start of the year.
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Instead, he's third in the NFL in passing yards through two games, and that's without Cooper Kupp. The Rams offense looks far better than we expected, and Stafford is a major reason why. Should he keep this pace up and stay healthy, there's a case to be made that the Rams QB is worthy of this award. This would be the second of his career, the first coming in 2011. That situation saw Stafford miss 13 games in 2010 and come back to throw 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns.
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