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NFL Betting: Apply these Week 2 lessons to bets for Week 3 and beyond
Monday night we got a couple of "MNF" games as the TV overlords tried to figure out what we want and how we want it. I truly do not understand why they were on simultaneously as opposed to back-to-back. All we want is to watch as much football as possible. We did get a couple of close games plus some more heartbreak for Cleveland Browns fans. Can this franchise ever really catch a break (or have they damaged their karma too much)?
A quick look back at Week 2 and we can see a bunch of things we can put into betting action going forward.
Buffalo is Just Fine
The Bills did not look good in that first "MNF" game. When Aaron Rodgers went down early for the Jets it looked like the Bills would cruise to an easy win, not lose in overtime. A week later, are we sure they are not the best team in the AFC? Beating the Raiders is not the most impressive feat but the way they did it was. They shut out Las Vegas in the second half and Josh Allen was both efficient and not using his legs too much. Both can be true.
Betting takeaway ... With the Bengals struggling early, maybe now is the time to get down on a Buffalo to the Super Bowl future, or to win the AFC East (they are currently behind Miami in the standings).
Denver is Still a Mess
Starting 0-2 generally means your season is over, though maybe adding the extra game changes that some. Denver is not the only 0-2 team for sure, nor are they the most disappointing, but a couple of close losses to mediocre teams are not inspiring. There is just nothing for this team to lean on so far this season. New head coach Sean Payton was supposed to move this team quickly past a Year 0 situation but that has not been the case.
Betting Takeaway ... Denver is a stay-away team for me. A game in the teens and a game in the 30s so they are all over the map. Ignoring the losses, what are they?
Waiting on Watson
Quarterbacks make a lot of money. They are not all going to earn it, but I am not sure anyone has earned less than Deshaun Watson with Cleveland. I know there is a lot more to that story, but focusing on the field the Browns are just 4-4 overall with him and 1-1 this season. With RB Nick Chubb out for the season Cleveland needs to lean on their signal caller more than ever. Is he up to the task?
Betting Takeaway ...I don't think so. Cleveland is a fade candidate until proven otherwise.
Coronation on Hold in Jacksonville
There was a lot of buzz that Jacksonville could finish first in the AFC this season. The Jags are clearly a team on the rise, but their loss at home to Kansas City, though probably factored into some of those projections, showed us that this team still has work to do if they are going to surmount the Chiefs and Bills. All three teams are 1-1 now. The offense could not find the end zone last week. It was not a total flex by KC but a shot to the Jags hype train for sure.
Betting takeaway ... Use the recency bias to your advantage this week against Houston.
First Coach Fired Odds
This prop gets some attention during the offseason, it is a fun one to write about too. So far, there are a number of 0-2 teams but only won coached by a head man whose team flamed out in the playoffs last season in epic fashion and seems to have all of the pieces in place to be a regular contender. That would be Brandon Staley of the Los Angeles Chargers. The coach is a lightning rod for his decision making and at some point, you have to wonder if they might want to jump off the ride.
Betting takeaway ... there might not be a more urgent team this week and they do not do well under pressure. They are on the road too.
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