Dolphins season in the hands of backups like Eli Apple

I’ve always had a theory that a football team, especially the units of players that must work together, are only as good as the weakest links.

And oftentimes, those weak links are backups replacing injured starters.

Those are usually the players good offensive and defensive coordinators choose to gameplan for, attempting to exploit the fill-in left guard (Lester Cotton), replacement center (Liam Eichenberg), and journeyman cornerback (Eli Apple) elevated into prominent roles.

If the Miami Dolphins intend on concluding this season on a favorable note - possibly winning the franchise’s first AFC East division crown since 2008 by beating the Buffalo Bills tonight, and maybe winning Miami’s first playoff game since 2000 next week - they will need half a dozen backups, or injured players returning to the lineup to step up and deliver solid performances.

Let’s examine every unit that features a potential weak link because of a missing starter, or an injured player returning.

Starters to replace

Cornerback Xavien Howard: When healthy Howard’s one of the top ballhawks in the NFL. While he didn’t have a Pro Bowl level season, his instincts and coverage skills helped Miami create one of the best cornerback duos in the NFL when Jalen Ramsey entered the lineup around midseason. Without Howard the Dolphins will be forced to lean on Eli Apple on the boundary. Apple has played 469 snaps on defense this season, and opposing quarterbacks have produced a 91.0 passer rating when throwing at a receiver, or in an area he’s defending. That's much better than Kader Kohou, but Apple has fallen short of expectations most of his NFL career.

Pass rusher Bradley Chubb: Before suffering his season-ending knee injury last week, Chubb led the Dolphins with 11 sacks and six forced fumbles. He wasn’t an edge demon, producing sacks every single game this season, but he was consistently applying pressure, and was decent at setting the edge and dropping back into coverage. Melvin Ingram and Emmanuel Ogbah will likely be called on to fill the void Chubb’s absence creates. Obgah has had a rough season in 2023 because he’s not an ideal scheme fit for Vic Fangio's defense, but the 5.5 sacks, one fumble forced and one interception he’s produced in 200 defensive snaps is proof he’s still a productive NFL player when given opportunity. Fangio needs to learn how to adapt his scheme to make it work. Ingram, who was added to the practice squad three weeks ago, has produced 57 sacks in his 12 seasons, but he's entering his fourth week with the Dolphins.

Receiver Jaylen Waddle: Waddle is one of 24 receivers who have produced 1,000 yard seasons coming into today’s regular season finale. But the Dolphins will be forced to play without the team’s second-leading receiver because of the high ankle sprain that will sideline him for a second straight game. Look for Robbie Chosen (spacer), Cedrick Wilson Jr. (possession receiver), River Cracraft (best blocker) and Chase Claypool (red zone threat) to fill numerous roles as Tyreek Hill's complementary pieces. But the Dolphins have leaned on tight end Durham Smythe recently (12 receptions for 142 yards the past three games) to move the chains during Waddle’s absence, and that trend might continue against the Bills.

Tailback Raheem Mostert: Mostert, who happened to be one of seven tailbacks who have rushed for more than 1,000 yards this season, has been a stabilizing presence for the Dolphins offense this season. He enters the season’s final week tied with Christian McCaffrey for the NFL lead in touchdowns scored (21). His playmaking ability is why it’s important that Miami has him available for the postseason. Last week Achane filled in for Mostert admirably, gaining 107 rushing yards on 14 carries, and contributing 30 receiving yards and scoring a touchdown on four receptions. Achane's 8.0 yards per carry average is the highest average for NFL tailbacks with 50 or more attempts this season, and it's possible he could carry the backfield if his turf toe injury holds up. Also, expect Jeff Wilson and Chris Brooks to fill various roles.

Returning Starters

Safety Jevon Holland: Earlier this season Holland was being discussed as one of the best safeties in the NFL. His instincts and range set him apart from his peers, but the three-year starter struggled in his return to the lineup last week, and it led to defensive breakdowns in the secondary against the Ravens. The hope is that he’ll work off the rust, and return to being the playmaker Miami’s coaches believe he is. However, Holland was downgraded to questionable on Saturday, likely because he was experiencing some knee soreness after being rested for a month prior to his return last week. If Holland can’t play expect Brandon Jones to start a sixth game as his replacement. But Jones and DeShone Elliott are similar safeties, and neither have the skillset to cover a receiver one-on-one for an extended period of time when they’re forced to pick them up in a zone.

Inside linebacker Jerome Baker: Duke Riley has filled in admirably for Baker the past four games while he rehabilitated the left knee injury he suffered five games ago. While Baker has been cleared to play, the biggest question is whether or not he’ll resume his role as Miami’s every down inside linebacker, and the green dot player responsible for making every defensive call. It’s possible that Miami could allow Riley to continue filling in for Baker, and ask Baker to serve as a shadow for quarterback Josh Allen, whose athleticism and scrambling ability has always presented challenges for the Dolphins. Baker’s intelligence is routinely praised by his coaches, and his ability to time things up effectively as a blitzer (22.5 sacks in six seasons) is underutilized. At the least, he’ll be utilized as a backup to Riley and David Long Jr.

Right guard Robert Hunt: Hunt has missed two months worth of games because of a left hamstring strain that he initially injured in October, and then re-aggravated in early December when he returned to the starting lineup for one game. Hunt’s been shelved for a month since his regression, and the hope is that he’d regain his old form for the postseason and create run game surges. He’ll likely start tonight’s game against the Bills at right guard and the hope is that he won’t suffer another setback. Expect Rob Jones to move from right guard to left guard because of his experience edge over Lester Cotton, and the fact that Cotton is nursing a hip injury that might be impacting his performance.