Pelicans vs. Thunder: Game 1 prediction, odds, pick for Sunday 4/21

Pelicans vs. Thunder Odds

Sunday, April 21, 9:30 pm, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

New Orleans Pelicans

All the positivity surrounding this team with the return of Brandon Ingram quickly dissipated when Williamson exited its first game of the Play-In Tournament with a hamstring injury. The Pelicans watched as their solid defensive metrics took a dive in the final month of the season without Ingram on the floor, and now they'll have to find a way to score without a player who sat just outside the top 10 in estimated offensive impact this season according to Dunks and Threes.

The good news here is that Williamson's absence shouldn't impact this team's ability to knock down 3-pointers. New Orleans was one of the best shooting sides in the league this season at 38.8% according to Cleaning the Glass, and since the start of April, the Pelicans ranked second with a 42.2% hit rate from deep thanks to the efforts of CJ McCollum.

The Pelicans have also featured one of the best 3-point defenses in the NBA all season long, and while that didn't hold true in April it was largely due to the absence of Ingram. Oklahoma City was the third-best team in the league from deep this season, and while that's not nearly the only way it can beat you it's certainly helpful to have that in your pocket if you're the Pelicans.

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Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have enjoyed themselves at home this season, going a whopping 33-8 straight up and 27-14 against the spread. They watched as their 3-point shooting grew by a point in these games while their defense clamped up even further, which highlights just how hard it is for opponents to play on the road against this team.

The meat and potatoes of the Oklahoma City offense is in its ability to score from beyond the arc, though it holds top-10 marks in every shooting zone this year. In a strange twist, it has deviated from the norm of most efficient offenses by taking most of its shots from the mid-range, though it certainly hasn't hurt considering it's knocking down 46.8% of shots in that area.

Defensively, I mean, take your pick. How do you want to attack this team? Teams that lean on elite post scoring will be met by the best rim protection in the NBA which allowed just 61.6% of shots to fall from within four feet of the basket. If you're a team that lights it up from deep, the Thunder have allowed worse than 37% shooting in that regard, and were down under 36% in the month of April.

Production has decreased ever so subtly, but the Thunder are still dominant everywhere you look and have even improved in their weakest area, which is the perimeter.

The lone critique of the Thunder has been their terrible rebounding numbers, but even then they've ranked 15th this month — higher than even the Pelicans, who ordinarily would hold an edge in this category. The Thunder have also forced a ton of turnovers, ranking first in the NBA, and have limited them better than all but five teams.

Pelicans vs. Thunder

Betting Pick & Prediction

There are few teams that force more turnovers than the Pelicans, but the Thunder are one of them. They're uniquely positioned here to win the turnover battle against a New Orleans team that does so on a near-nightly basis, and on top of that their 3-point defense should shine here against a team that is going to be forced to revert to taking a high volume of shots from deep.

The Pelicans are a team playing with energy at the moment, but there's only so long they can go without one of their best players as we saw in the immediate aftermath of the injury to Ingram. Their fall-off on the glass and on defense in general will be quite evident on Sunday against arguably the most complete team in the Western Conference.

Pick: Thunder -8.5 (-110)