NBA best bets, picks: Predictions for Knicks vs. Pacers, Nuggets vs. Timberwolves for 5/12

Knicks vs. Pacers

Sunday, May 12, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Pacers -5.5 (FanDuel)

By Michael Fiddle

The Knicks have officially ruled out OG Anunoby and are coming off a five-point loss. However, the line reopened at 5.5 instead of at seven, which is where it closed for Game 2.

To me, this is a full point of value in the pricing. There is also a ton of tickets on the Knicks, but the line is either sticking at the 5.5 or moving to 6. There has been no Knicks movement despite the volume of bets on that side. This can sometimes be referred to as Reverse Line Movement, and a reason to back the Pacers. I know myself, along with the books, will be rooting for Pacers -5.5 to cover, and its good when you and the house have the same side.

Pick: Pacers -5.5

Knicks vs. Pacers

Jalen Brunson Under 3.5 Rebounds (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

Let’s have a nice Sunday sweat. Brunson has been incredible throughout the postseason, but is now dealing with a foot injury that seems to have impacted both his quickness and explosiveness.

Since he returned from injury in the second half of Game 2, he has recorded exactly one rebound in six quarters of basketball. Also, he had ZERO rebound chances in Game 3. He isn't looking to crash the boards or jump for anything — he's conserving his energy for the offensive burst he needs to keep the Knicks in these games.

He has gone under 3.5 rebounds in 55% of his games this season and in 67% of the games without Julius Randle, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson. In part, that's because there are more minutes/usage for Josh Hart, Miles McBride and even Alec Burks, all players who can get grab rebounds and push the ball in transition to take that burden off Brunson.

Considering the injury, I’ll play the base, but if you want an extra sweat, Under 2.5 (+220) and Under 1.5 (+550 DK) aren't unreasonable.

Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 3.5 Rebounds

Knicks vs. Pacers

Pacers -5.5 (FanDuel)

By Matt Moore

If you got Pacers -4.5 in Game 3, you covered. If you got five (like I did), you pushed. Ugh.

But I'm going back to the well. Teams that won Game 3 to cut a series to 2-1 and are favored in Game 4 are 31-18 SU and 27-22 ATS at home.

I will continue to believe that a team missing three starters (Mitchell Robinson started most of the season, Julius Randle and OG Anunoby), playing their starters ungodly minutes and getting obliterated in all the bench minutes is going to run out of steam.

I think the Pacers can play better. The fact that they haven't is more of a sign of untapped potential. They've played below what they can in this series and were in both Games 1 and 2. The Knicks might just out-effort them here with Josh Hart turning into a juggernaut, but the Pacers' offense continues to generate good looks and Tyrese Haliburton looks like he's finally figured out playoff basketball.

I'll lay the points.

Pick: Pacers -5.5

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves

Sunday, May 12, 8 p.m. ET, TNT
Nuggets Moneyline (FanDuel)

By Micah Roberts

The Nuggets' big four are back. Denver woke up from its two-game nap and turned the tables to show on Minnesota in Game 3.

They shot 54% overall and 48% from 3. They played their best game at the most pivotal moment of the season. Now, they have to do it again.

The Nuggets know they're better than the Timberwolves, they know they're better than everybody and that's what led them to the championship last year. It almost comes down to an arrogance.

The Timberwolves also know Denver is better. Minnesota just got whipped on its home floor.

Games 1 and 2 are in the past. This is a new chapter and Denver's writing it right now. Back the Nuggets on the moneyline.

Pick: Nuggets Moneyline