NBA best bets: Here's 7 expert picks for the Wednesday, March 13 slate

Raptors vs. Pistons

Wednesday, March 13, 7 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Pistons -3.5 (Bet365)

By Chris Baker

This is a gross bet, but this Pistons team is just better than the current version of the Raptors despite their impressive near upset of the Nuggets the other night.

Since the All-Star break, the Pistons have gone 3-7 and rank 23rd in net rating (-4.2), which is a substantial improvement over their season-long net rating of -9.4.

The Raptors are tied with them in net rating over that stretch (-3.4), but that's with many Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl minutes mixed in. The Raptors will remain without most of their key starters here, as Poeltl, Barrett and Scottie Barnes are all confirmed out while Quickley and Gary Trent Jr. are officially questionable.

The Pistons' most recent starting lineup of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Simone Fontecchio, Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren has actually been highly effective in a small sample size, owning a +12.7 net rating together.

Additionally, the Pistons have been a pretty solid offensive-rebounding team with Duren on the floor (74th percentile), while the Raptors have struggled to finish possessions and defend the rim with Poeltl out of the lineup.

Finally, I think there's potential for some fatigue for the Raptors traveling out of high altitude after a herculean effort in Denver when they nearly shocked the Nuggets and pulled off an impressive upset.

With an edge in the paint, hold your nose and back the Pistons at home here.

Pick: Pistons -3.5

Bulls vs. Pacers

Wednesday, March 13, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Tyrese Haliburton Over 11.5 Assists (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Pacers host the Bulls tonight, and they'll be at a rest disadvantage on their second night of a back-to-back set.

Tyrese Haliburton should have a big game though. He leads the league in assists per game (11.3) and potentials (18.8) and now gets a Chicago team that allows the seventh-most assists per game to its opponents.

Hali hasn’t looked the same after the All-Star Break. Before it, he was putting up 14-assist games seemingly every single night. However, this is a get-right spot against the Bulls.

In two games against Chicago this season, Haliburton has recorded 13 and 20 assists on 23 and 27 potentials. He’s crushed in this matchup due to the Bulls' proclivity to surrender the catch-and-shoot 3 coupled with their relatively strong point-of-attack defense.

Over the last 10 games, Chicago has allowed Caris LeVert (15), Luka Doncic (14), Draymond Green (12), Zion Williamson (11), and De'Aaron Fox (10) to all reach double-digit dimes in this exploitable matchup.

I expect a big game from Haliburton tonight and for him to exceed 11.5 assists.

Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 11.5 Assists (-110)

Hornets vs. Grizzlies

Wednesday, March 13, 8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Vasilije Micić Over 10.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

This prop is from the "Somebody Gotta Get These Buckets" game of the night.

You know this if you know European hoops: Vasilije Micić can ball.

The 30-year-old Serbian import wasn't given a real shake with the Oklahoma City Thunder and was left out of the rotation prior to the move to Charlotte.

Since the trade just over a month ago, the two-time EuroLeague Champion and Final Four MVP is averaging 10.4 points per game, and although on inefficient 42/25/88 splits, he's up to an improved 13.8 points per contest on 44/26/94 over his last six.

The 3-point shooting is an adjustment coming over from Europe, so he's not taking a ton of them yet. But in the EuroLeague, nearly half of his field goal attempts came from deep, where he shot over 37%.

But the scorer, and more importantly, the opportunities are coming along with or without Tre Mann, who's questionable to play after missing three straight.

Micić isn't a real threat from deep yet, but he's near-automatic on free throws, taking nearly three per game over his last six while scoring over 10.5 points in six consecutive contests and nine overall in his 14 appearances with the Hornets.

Pick: Vasilije Micić Over 10.5 Points (-120)

Cavaliers vs. Pelicans

Wednesday, March 13, 8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Pelicans Team Total Over 112.5 (DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

The Cavs will be without Max Strus, Evan Mobley and Dean Wade here, while superstar Donovan Mitchell is questionable to return. Strus, Mobley and Dean are their best defenders, and when all three of those players have been off the court, the Cavs have struggled to get stops with a defensive rating of 123.2.

When those guys have been off and Darius Garland has been on, the Cavs have a defensive rating of 136.3 on the season.

They'll ask players like Sam Merill, Georges Niang and Craig Porter Jr. to step up and play more minutes, but this is a tough matchup against one of the biggest teams in the NBA in the Pelicans.

I expect Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson to hunt advantages in matchups all night and live in the paint for the entire game. The Pels rank 10th in schedule-adjusted offensive rating on the season and actually rank sixth in the NBA in offensive rating post-All-Star break.

This number is just too low and doesn’t account for how bad this Cavs defense might be when missing all of their wing defenders. I’d play this up to 115.

Pick: Pelicans Team Total Over 112.5 (Play to 115)

Warriors vs. Mavericks

Wednesday, March 13, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Under 237 (BetRivers)

By Michael Fiddle

We have a spot here where the general trend of unders in the NBA after the All-Star Break, the rash of injuries to key players and the basketball angles all align.

Unders have been cashing at about a 70% rate since the break, and the opening-to-closing lines have been trending consistently down.

The Warriors will also be without Curry again in this contest, as he's expected to resume practicing on Friday. Golden State is emphasizing tough defense while its offense struggles to score.

I think Draymond Green will orchestrate a game plan against Luka Doncic — and Chris Paul plays slow and methodically anyway.

This game should close below 236 and be an under spot. Play the under at 236.5 or or better

Pick: Under 237 (Play to 236.5)

Warriors vs. Mavericks

Luka Doncic Over 33.5 Points (ESPN BET)

By Joe Dellera

Luka can dominate the Warriors.

This line is sky-high, but Doncic is leading the league in scoring while averaging 34.6 PPG. He has actually exceeded this 33.5 line in 54% of games this season and in seven of his last 10 while averaging 36.4 over that stretch.

In Luka’s last three regular-season games against the Warriors, he’s scored 39, 30 and 41 points. While the most recent 39-point effort didn't include facing Draymond Green, he still has found success even when Draymond is on the floor.

The Warriors just don't have a body to throw at him. They’re undersized and anyone who really is big enough isn't necessarily skilled enough to keep up with him.

Doncic scored “just” 27 points against Chicago in his last game, so this presents a great bounce-back spot for him. I expect Luka to exceed 33.5 points tonight.

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 33.5 Points

Lakers vs. Kings

Wednesday, March 13, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
D'Angelo Russell Over 16.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

One of my favorite players to bet on this season has been D'Angelo Russell, which is probably as shocking to you as it is to me.

Now, I've liked Russell since I covered him during his Nets days in Brooklyn, so obviously, we knew he could hoop. But it's his consistency I've been marveling at this year.

His true shooting is tilting toward 60% while he's shooting 47/42/80 splits from the field, 3-point range and the free-throw lion.

Since Jan. 11 — let's call it the last two months — Russell is averaging 22.3 points on 48/46/83 shooting with 20 overs in 27 games.

I understand that he's gone under 16.5 in two of his last three, but I don't care — I'll buy on the larger sample against the Kings, who are on the second game of a back-to-back.

Over the last two months, Russell has scored 20 or more in 15 of his 20 overs, so I'll probably climb the ladder and sprinkle him to drop 20 or more at +160 too.

Pick: D'Angelo Russell Over 16.5 Points