NBA best bets: Expert picks, NBA props for Wednesday, March 6

Magic vs. Wizards

Wednesday, March 6, 7 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Franz Wagner over 8.5 R+A (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Magic are on a back-to-back against the Washington Wizards in what should be a clear Pace Up spot for them.

Franz’s R+A line is set at 8.5, a number he has exceeded in 65% of games this season while averaging 9.6 R+A per game.

Franz has thrived in this matchup against Washington, with 17, 15, and 9 R+A in three games this season. Washington allows the most rebounds and the most assists per game to their opponents and I expect Franz to find success tonight.

We are getting a buy low spot after he recorded just 5 R+A against the lowly Hornets in what was a slog of a game.

I will take Franz to exceed 8.5 R+A.

Pick: Franz Wagner over 8.5 R+A

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Cavaliers vs. Hawks

Wednesday, March 6, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Dejounte Murray over 12.5 R+A (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Hawks take on the Cavs in what is the second game of a back-to-back with travel for both of these teams.

Ordinarily this is not a great matchup for Murray with the Cavs’ top notch defense and Murray potentially having the Donovan Mitchell assignment. Here, we know Mitchell is out, and Evan Mobley’s status has not been updated yet, but he left the arena on crutches with a swollen ankle after their win over the Celtics.

Murray has averaged 15 R+A without Trae Young this season and has exceeded 12.5 R+A in 9 of 10 games without him. This line is simply low. In the Hawks’ last game against the Cavs Murray racked up 14 R+A and that was with Trae. The one game he missed the 12.5 R+A was against the Nets who limited his assist opportunities and he finished with 11 R+A.

I’ll grab Murray to exceed 12.5 R+A and think the price on Triple Double has climbed enough that it is worth a play at +2800 (DK).

Pick: Dejounte Murray over 12.5 R+A

Clippers vs. Rockets

Wednesday, March 6, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Ivica Zubac over 10.5 R+A (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

Ivica Zubac just had 11 rebounds and four assists in his second game back from an illness in just 23 minutes of work.

Tonight against Houston, he comes into the contest having gone over 10.5 R+A in five of seven games. He hasn't had the monster rebounding efforts as of late as he did before his calf injury in mid-January that sidelined him for nine games, but I think those are coming down the stretch. Even so, he's at 9-9-2 over his last seven contests with five double-digit rebounding efforts and three double doubles.

Given this over, I'll probably sprinkle something small on his double-double at +215 too.

Pick: Ivica Zubac over 10.5 R+A

Bulls vs. Jazz

Wed., March 6, 9 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Ayo Dosunmu over 23.5 P+R+A (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

I will not be deterred.

I could literally copy and paste what I what wrote Monday when I logged this same prop in this file.

Dosunmu then was listed at O/U 22.5 P+R+A and ended Monday night's game with 27, thanks to the tune of 20 points, five assists and two rebounds in the Bulls come from behind win over the Kings. That brings him to over 22.5 P+R+A in seven of nine games… oh wait? That's right, it's 23.5 now. Well, guess what? It doesn't matter! Dosunmu's been over 23.5 in six of nine and at 23 exactly just once — the first game of the stretch.

In his last nine, Dosumnu is averaging about 18-5-4 on 50/46/80 shooting. We're riding this one out until he lets us down in back to back efforts.

Pick: Ayo Dosunmu over 23.5 P+R+A

Kings vs. Lakers

Wednesday, March 6, 10:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
De'Aaron Fox over 25.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Kings take on the Lakers tonight, and one player I am targeting is De’Aaron Fox.

Fox has had success in this matchup as both D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves have struggled to contain him. Fox is a dynamic three level scorer and should find success against a Lakers’ defense which is fifth-worst in the NBA since the ASB.

Fox’s Points line is set at 25.5, a number he has exceeded in 61% of road games while averaging 27.6 ppg. Additionally, he has smashed this line against the Lakers, going over in both games this season and in 5/6 over the last two years.

I expect Fox to put up a strong performance tonight and exceed 25.5 Points.

Pick: De'Aaron Fox over 25.5 Points