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Where will Shohei Ohtani land? Handicapping each team's odds

By Matt Whitener | Last updated 12/7/17

[Editor's note: This story has been updated to reflect moves made Wednesday by certain teams to clear up more international spending money.]

The sweepstakes to land the services of Shohei Ohtani have been extensive to say the least. The availability of the two-way Japanese star has become a thing of mythical proportions, as pursuit of the 23-year-old has been the most sensational free agent event arguably in Major League Baseball history.

The wooing of Ohtani has more closely resembled that of a five-star prep athlete than that of a professional free agent. Due to the changes in the posting rules for international players younger than 25, the terms for agreeing to a deal with existing international pro free agents is enjoying a more level playing field than ever before. Unlike in years past, when the negotiating with top international free agents leant itself more exclusively toward large-market teams, the reworked deal between the MLB and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball League limits player compensation to only what is available from the international spending pool for the year.

In the case of Ohtani, this means the most he can receive is just over $3.5 million in signing bonus compensation, which is what the Texas Rangers currently have available to offer. So aside from the mandatory $20 million posting fee that must be paid to the NPB to release Ohtani from his Japanese contract, a talent that has been rumored would have garnered upward of $300 million on the open market can be had for the price of a middle reliever.

Because of this, a wider variety of teams have been putting on their Sunday’s best to woo the potential ace — and power-hitting outfielder — to their side. Ohtani himself has also played a pivotal part in the wide-spanning spectrum that is his market. He has stated that is not solely about the money, which will be dwarfed in an immediate sense by the estimated $20 million in endorsements he stands to make in the next year. Rather, it is about a specific blend of logistics and opportunity, first and foremost. His desire to become a legitimate two-way performer in some capacity is very real, and while teams are most drawn into the 100-mph roof of his fastball, his propensity to hit the long ball will need to embraced as well.

As a part of his preferred destination, Ohtani ruled out both the East Coast and large markets, a statement he made good on by swiftly removing all East Coast teams from his list of finalists.

When the dust settled, a diverse set of seven teams was hosted by Ohtani and his representatives in Los Angeles to open the week.

With the suitors for his services selected, a Dec. 22 deadline for a decision approaching and the MLB Winter Meetings looming ahead in the new week, here's where we stand in the final leg of the Shohei Otani sweepstakes.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Location seems to have aided the Angels in getting an interview with Ohtani even though they are a large-market team. Mike Trout’s presence likely didn’t hurt either. For Anaheim, landing Ohtani would be a tremendous coup, particularly since the team is looking to upgrade the roster before Trout is eligible to reach the open market. He would become an instant opening day starter for the Angels, who have struggled to offer anything in the form of a front-line arm in recent years.

Deciding factors: The lure of playing with Trout is a drawing card that’s likely to play well with many, and the Angels are acutely aware of the need to add to their roster to get the most of his remaining guaranteed years in Anaheim. Therefore the Halos have been aggressive in gaining as much international cap space as possible, which is now up to a healthy $2.3 million. They have a compelling mixture of location and financial wherewithal to make a strong play for his services.

Chicago Cubs

The team furthest from his locational desires to get an audience with Ohtani is Chicago, and for good reason. The 2016 World Series champions have proven to be a destination location for young talents who are looking to compete for the foreseeable future. Ohtani’s competitiveness is a noted element of his personality. Meanwhile for the Cubs, he would offer an extremely cost-effective upgrade to a rotation that needs a long-term front-line solution. Plus, they have the deep pockets to offer him a massive extension much sooner than later.

Deciding factors: If he is willing to put location aside, one would think that Theo Epstein and company have a pretty good shot at him. But that is a pretty big if.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Like the Cubs, the Dodgers only have $300,000 they can offer Ohtani immediately, but they can offer him a massive extension and have a competitive window that is wide open. They also have the benefit of being on the West Coast, which could play a big part in getting him to come aboard — if the idea of Los Angeles itself does not turn him off.

Deciding factors: The Dodgers are always in play financially, but they also give the chance of immediate top-level competition. Plus, Dave Roberts has shown a preference for using as much of his roster as possible to create offense. This could be an enticing scenario for Ohtani.

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San Diego Padres

The most interesting participant in the fray, the Padres would have no chance in hell at this caliber of free agent. However, Ohtani's history with the organization makes San Diego an intriguing destination. Going back to 2012, Ohtani’s Japanese team, the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, utilized the Padres’ training facilities on multiple occasions, and the presence of Japanese legend Hideo Nomo as an advisor sure helps. Add in that the Padres' developing roster offers a chance of him easily fitting in atop both the rotation and at the plate regularly, and it's not so far-fetched.

Deciding factors: While it would seemingly be the long shot of all long shots, in the non-tradition process that has been Ohtani’s move to MLB, San Diego could be a sleeping giant. If he is looking for a place that is the anti-New York and can offer him any and every opportunity he desires, the Padres could be the best fit.

San Francisco Giants

The busiest bees of the winter so far have likely been San Francisco front office mavens Bobby Evans and Brian Sabean, who have not only been in pursuit of Ohtani in the last week, but also Giancarlo Stanton. San Francisco is at the heart of a rapid rebuild effort that would get a massive boost forward with Ohtani in the mix. The Bay could also offer a very easily adaptable cultural experience for Ohtani, in addition to a team that will look to regularly compete.

Deciding factors: The Giants offer an intriguing blend of options that could lure Ohtani aboard. They are without an existing Japanese star — which is of importance to him — in area where one would thrive. In the intangibles column, the presence of Japanese-speaking base coach Hensley Meulens doesn’t hurt either. They also offer a competitive West Coast perch that is not an overwhelming metropolis area either. There is undeniably a lot to like about making AT&T Park his U.S. home.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have a strong track record with Japanese players crossing over to the MLB with Ichiro, Kaz Sasaki and Hisashi Iwakuma blooming from their ranks. GM Jerry Dipoto has not been shy about how intent he is on bringing Ohtani to the Pacific Northwest, as he has continued to acquire more and more bonus pool room to provide the best possible offer he can. That total is now up to $2.5 million after further wheeling and dealing on Wednesday to clear more space.

Deciding factors: The Mariners’ enthusiasm toward bringing him aboard certainly could help, because in the end, who doesn’t like feeling wanted? While the club’s ranks are not completely devoid of Japanese players (Iwakuma recently re-signed), the long-term presence and image of the team in Japan could weigh in as well. On the field, he would join Felix Hernandez and James Paxton atop an instantly competitive rotation and could find the relaxed nature of the city enticing too. It is hard to count out the Mariners here.

Texas Rangers

When it comes to cash, the Rangers are king in this scenario, and despite his insistence about not caring about such things, it is telling that they are still here. The Rangers need a replacement for Yu Darvish within their rotation and offer a nice ballpark to hit in as well.

Deciding factors: The Rangers’ biggest drawing card is cash, which admittedly is not king in this scenario. Possessing a designated hitter slot is a close second, but the route toward that slot is clouded by the presence of Joey Gallo for the time being. The biggest hindrance for the Rangers is being located in Texas, and while they play a great deal of their games on the West Coast, it may not be enough to pull in Ohtani — no matter how many dollars are at stake.

So where will he land?

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What ultimately ends up being the tipping point for Ohtani still remains largely known only to him and his camp. However, based off of what is already known and the factors surrounding the teams that have interviewed with him this week, here is a prediction of how the sweepstakes for his services ultimately shake out:

7. Cubs. The guaranteed competitive window is there, but lack of at-bats and Midwestern locale eliminate them.

6. Dodgers. The West Coast is nice, but the large market and lack of at-bat options hurt their chances.

5. Angels. The combo of Trout, California and the American League is nice, and the added funds make for a good balance for earnings as well. But will Ohtani view Anaheim as far enough removed from the bustle of living in the second-largest metropolis in the nation?

4. Rangers. The only big drawing card is the money, and that has not been enough to sway his decision yet, as he eliminated four of the top five most lucrative options from the beginning.

3. Padres. There is the historical association and a lot of boxes checked by the SoCal locale, but the Padres likely drift short of what could be offered by two other West Coast contemporaries.

2. Mariners. Seattle has the history of success with Japanese players and the perfect market size but ultimately loses the edge of opportunity in the end based on his seeming determination to craft his own legacy.

1. Giants. Many analysts have speculated that an NL team that does not have the DH spot to utilize will not be able to offer Ohtani the type of at-bats he would like. However, an AL team cannot offer as many guaranteed ABs as a National League pitcher sees. Add in the interleague and pinch hit appearances, as well as perhaps even a spot start in right field occasionally, and there will be more than enough chances for him to wet his appetite at the plate. Finally, the size of the San Francisco area and its diverse Asian population make for a perfect segue for Ohtani to properly plant and expand his stardom in the U.S. San Francisco should have the leg up ever so slightly over San Diego and Seattle.

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