The 2023 Breakout Players of the Year

J.P. Crawford was a first-round pick in 2013 and a top prospect through 2018. However, across the first six seasons of his major league career, he never reached that top prospect potential. That’s not to say he was a bust – he developed into a capable starter for the Mariners – but he just never became the perennial All-Star he looked like in his prospect days.

Finally, in 2023, Crawford became that guy. He didn’t actually earn an All-Star selection, but he finished the year as a top-five shortstop in baseball by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference WAR. The lefty-batter set new career highs in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and walk rate en route to a 134 wRC+, sixth-best among qualified AL hitters.

Honorable Mention: Chas McCormick, Houston Astros (457 PA, 133 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR)

AL Breakout Pitcher of the Year: Zach Eflin (TBR)

2023 Stats: 31 starts, 177.2 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.11 xERA, 4.8 fWAR

In his first season with the Rays, Zach Eflin hit career highs in starts and innings, while setting career lows in ERA and just about every ERA estimator.

He showed plenty of promise throughout his seven-year tenure with the Phillies, but he never quite put it all together, suffering one setback or another almost every year. Indeed, the one year when he was healthy and effective for Philadelphia was the shortened 2020 season; perhaps that would have been his breakout campaign if he had gotten to pitch more than 11 games.

By all three versions of WAR (FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus), Eflin was a top-eight pitcher in the American League. Indeed, it won’t be surprising to see that he earned some down-ballot Cy Young support when the full results are announced later this month.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles (30 starts, 2.83 ERA, 3.8 fWAR)

NL Breakout Player of the Year: TJ Friedl (CIN)

2023 Stats: 138 games, 556 PA, .279/.352/.467, .353 wOBA, .290 xwOBA, 116 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR 

Unlike Crawford and Eflin, TJ Friedl was never a top prospect. Yet in a Reds lineup chock full of promising young talent, it was Friedl whose star shone the brightest in 2023.

With his strong contact skills and surprising power, the 28-year-old turned in a 116 wRC+ in his first full season of big league action. He hit 18 home runs, stole 27 bases, and showed off an accurate arm and good range in center field. All that added up to 4.4 Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs – the highest on his team and among the top 15 position players in the National League.

While he might be due for some regression at the plate (and he might be better suited for a corner outfield spot long-term), there is no denying that Friedl put his name on the map in 2023. He’ll enter the 2024 season as the leadoff hitter and everyday center fielder for a promising Reds team.

Honorable Mention: Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies (640 PA, 101 wRC+, 16 OAA, 3.8 fWAR)

NL Breakout Pitcher of the Year: Tanner Scott (MIA)

2023 Stats: 74 games, 12 saves, 2.31 ERA, 2.8 fWAR

If you aren’t a Marlins (or an Orioles) fan, there’s a good chance Tanner Scott wasn’t on your radar before this season. The 29-year-old lefty has been a capable and durable relief arm since 2018 – he ranks among the top 25 in innings and appearances over that time – but control issues kept him from being much more than a second-division middle reliever.

That all changed in 2023. Scott finally started throwing strikes (and generating chase), and he cut his walk rate in half without sacrificing his dominant strikeout stuff. The result? He stopped bleeding runs and turned into one of the most effective closers in the game.

What’s more, Scott wasn’t just dominant; he was durable, too. The lefty ranked sixth among big league relievers with 78 innings pitched, helping him put up the highest fWAR and Win Probability Added among all relief arms – yes, even higher than Félix Bautista.

Honorable Mention: Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres (26 starts, 3.57 ERA, 2.8 fWAR)