Rays' biggest free-agent investment is paying off

While the Rays aren’t exactly threatening the luxury-tax threshold any time soon, the team has been increasingly open to at least some modest spending over the last couple of years. Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182M extension is obviously the headliner of those moves, but Tampa Bay has also locked up the likes of Jeffrey Springs (four years/$31M), Yandy Diaz (three years/$24M), Pete Fairbanks (three years/$12M), Tyler Glasnow (two years/$30.35M) and Manuel Margot (two years/$19M) to multiyear commitments.

These deals were all extensions, however, and thus Zach Eflin’s three-year, $40M contract from last winter was more of an outlier in franchise history. The $40M represented the most money the Rays have ever given to a free agent over the franchise’s 26 seasons of existence. The Rays’ willingness to make such an expenditure surprised some pundits, for both financial and baseball-related reasons — why was a lower-spending team deep in starting pitching willing to take a relatively big (by their standards) plunge on a starter with a checkered health history?

Three months into the 2023 season, Tampa’s decision is looking quite wise. In the latest example of the “you can never have too much pitching” credo, the Rays’ rotation depth has been tested by multiple injuries.  Springs underwent Tommy John surgery, and Drew Rasmussen (flexor strain) and Josh Fleming (elbow soreness) are both on the 60-day injured list and will be out until at least August. Glasnow didn’t make his season debut until late May, after recovering from his own rehab from a Tommy John procedure in 2021.

Against the backdrop of these injury concerns, Eflin’s production has been invaluable. While the righty had a minimum 15-day IL stint himself in April due to back tightness, Eflin has been a stabilizing force within the rotation, and one of many reasons why the Rays have baseball’s best record.

Over 90 1/3 innings this season, Eflin has a 3.29 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate and 4.2% walk rate. The K% is Eflin’s highest over a “full” season (he had a 28.6% strikeout rate over 59 innings in the shortened 2020 campaign), while his walk rate is among the league’s best for the third straight year. The righty’s 52.7% grounder rate is also a career best, while his 37.8% hard-hit ball rate is (if only slightly) above the league average. There isn’t much variance between Eflin’s real-world stats and his expected stats, as his 3.34 SIERA and .277 xwOBA are almost identical to his 3.29 ERA and .274 wOBA.

Eflin is getting great results from his sinker, which has been his primary pitch since 2020. However, he is throwing the sinker only 34.7% of time, teaming it in a slightly more even mix with his curve (28.7% usage) and cutter (27.8%). As such, Eflin’s curveball has now also become a premium offering, and the sinker/curve combo has helped offset the cutter’s much shakier results. Combined with the occasional usage of a changeup and four-seamer to keep batters guessing, and Eflin is on pace for a career year in his age-29 season.

The biggest difference for Eflin in 2023, however, is just that he has thus far been pretty healthy. His 90 1/3 innings already marks the fourth-highest innings total of his eight MLB seasons, and he threw only 86 1/3 total frames in the regular season and postseason with the Phillies in 2022. He missed time last year due to a knee contusion, continuing the theme of knee problems that have plagued Eflin throughout his career — patellar-tendon surgeries on both knees in 2016, and then another patellar tendon procedure on his right knee in 2021. Philadelphia opted to use Eflin out of the bullpen after he returned from the IL last season, in order to get him on the mound in some capacity rather than spend more time fully building up his arm for a starter’s workload.

There hasn’t been any suggestion of an innings limit for Eflin, and although he has yet to pitch more than seven innings in a game this season, that is probably more due to Tampa Bay’s general approach to starter usage more than any specific intent to keep Eflin fresh. His career high for innings was 163 1/3 frames for the Phillies in 2019, so assuming good health from here on out, there is still quite a ways to go before Eflin or the Rays might have any concerns about his workload. With the Rays on pace for another postseason appearance, they certainly hope Eflin can pitch throughout October, and the potential returns of Rasmussen and Fleming will continue to impact the team’s pitching plans.