Race To The Blue Jays: Pearson vs Manoah

Both Pearson and Manoah are Baseball America top-100 prospects currently pitching in AAA ball.  Both have a very good chance of pitching in the big leagues in 2021.  But which will come up first?

It is a good problem to have.

The Blue Jays have two top pitching prospects in Alek Manoah and Nate Pearson who are currently pitching in Buffalo (well, Trenton, actually) but who are showing that they are very close to MLB-ready.  Both stand a better-than-good chance of making it to the big leagues this year.  But which will come up first?

The case for Nate

Technically, Nate has already made his mlb debut (in 2020) and has already pitched in a game in 2021, so he has won this “race”.  But he has struggled in his brief mlb career, with a 6.64 ERA (6.76 SIERA) and an ugly 7.97 walks per 9 innings.  Some have suggested that this is due to an inconsistent release point, while others believe that a tensing up at one point in his delivery was affecting his control (and adding to his injury risk).  Still others believe that Nate’s injury history is a simple function of throwing a ball 101.5 mph as he did in 2020 (the fastest pitch ever thrown by a Blue Jay), and that very few homo sapiens can throw that hard with control and without physical damage.

Nate was expected to be a significant contributor in 2020, but a flexor strain limited him to 18 unimpressive innings.  In Spring Training 2021, he suffered a Grade 1 groin strain during his first Grapefruit League outing, which he re-aggravated on March 16.  After one rehab start with Buffalo on May 4th, Nate was brought up to Toronto for a start against Houston on May 9, where he gave up 3 earned runs in 2.1 innings.  He was returned to Buffalo, where it was discovered that he had a mild shoulder impingement.  He is currently scheduled to start for the Bisons on Friday against Worcester.

When asked about the timing of Nate’s return to Toronto, Ross Atkins said “What we’ve kept talking to Nate about is just continuing to fall back on … the preparation, know that will turn into results, and very much look forward of those days of him having those extended starts in Triple-A and having some rhythm before he’s coming to the major leagues”.  Atkins added that he’d ideally like to see Pearson consistently getting to six or seven innings per start before bringing him back up.

So it appears that the Jays will not be rushing Nate (this time!) but rather will be giving him a chance to fully recover physically and to rediscover his consistency before he gets another mlb start.  But Ross did not specify what “consistently” meant.  So it is possible that 3-4 solid, six-inning outings might be enough to earn Baseball America’s #16 prospect another shot.

The case for Alek

In normal times, the idea of bringing up Alek Manoah in 2021 would be a non-starter.  In 2019, he had 17 innings in low-A ball.  So far in 2021 (including tonight’s game) he has 18 innings in triple-A.  You just don’t bring up a pitcher with only 35 professional innings.

Or do you?

These are not normal times.  While Alek did not play MiLB ball in 2020 (for the excellent reason that there was no MiLB ball to be had)  his year was far from wasted.  His first goal was to improve his condition.  When he could not find a gym that was still open and had the equipment he needed, he and his brother opened their own.

“We had to find a way, man,” Alek Manoah said. “It was either ‘use this time to stay inside and use it as an excuse,’ or ‘how can we try and find a way to get to the big-leagues and take some steps forward while everything else is on pause.’”

Then, when the Jays’ alternate training site opened in Rochester, Alek made working on a third pitch – his change-up – his number one priority.  He recognized that no matter how good his fastball and slider were (and they are pretty darn good!), a major league starter needed more than two pitches.  By the end of the alt site, he was comfortable throwing his slider in any count.

So the Manoah who showed up for Spring Training in 2021 was a much improved version of the 2019 “work in progress”.  You could even make the case that Alek progressed more in the alt camp in 2020 than he would have pitching in AA ball, by being able to focus fully on development rather than being distracted with game action.  “New Alek” impressed (to put it mildly!) in spring training, with 7 innings of one-hit, no-run, 15-strikeout ball.  So far in AAA he has started 3 games.  In 18 IP, he has allowed 7 hits and 1 earned run, with 27 strikeouts.

So the bottom line for Alek is how much weight to place on his limited MiLB experience, and how concerned the Jays should be that bringing him up too early might damage him, long-term.  Clearly, if he had played a full year at AA in 2020 and had another 120-ish innings of experience, the decision would be a lot easier.

Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star put it well when he said: