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Phillies' Eflin is Poised for an Exceptional 2022

Originally posted on FanNation Inside The Phillies
By Alex Carr | Last updated 4/10/22

The Philadelphia Phillies will showdown with the Oakland Athletics for the final meeting of their Opening Series on Sunday. Daulton Jeffries will start on the bump for Oakland, while the Phillies will send Zach Eflin to the mound.

Eflin, a consistently unsung arm, has been outstanding for the Phillies in recent years, but has struggled to stay on the mound thanks to recurring injuries.

The right-hander fully "broke out" in the shortened season of 2020, where he tossed 59 innings of 3.97 ERA (3.30 xERA) ball. He then carried that success over into an injury-shortened 2021. In those last two seasons combined, Eflin has totaled an impressive 3.58 FIP compared to a 4.10 ERA. That makes for a difference of .52, meaning he was on the losing end of the Phillies god-awful defense.

Perhaps most impressive of all: Zach Eflin ranks sixth among active starters in walks per nine innings over that two-year span with 1.69. He slots in just below names like Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi. He also ranks in the top 50 of MLB starters (min. 150 IP) in K/9 (41st), xFIP (19th), FIP (27th), and fWAR (37th) over that period.

Those would seem to be the numbers of a well-above-average starting pitcher.

Eflin's command of his horizontally-moving menace of a sinker has always been a major selling point of his–but in that pandemic-shortened season, the then-26-year-old unlocked a brand new part of his game when he began to see a significant uptick in his strikeout numbers. This was all thanks to the improved implementation of his slider/cutter/whatever you want to call it, and the major upgrade to his now go-to out pitch, his curveball.

In 2020, Eflin's curve went above and beyond. It posted a -3 run value, and surpassed even that of Aaron Nola's curve in Whiff% (43.9%) and K% (41.8%). It held batters to a pittance of a .132 xwOBA.

Batters got wise to Eflin's shenanigans in 2021 and caught up to the newly-introduced out pitch, but Eflin adjusted, simply upping the usage of his slider to get ahead in more counts.

Eflin's vast arsenal keeps hitters guessing. His sinker moves laterally, stealing strikes on the corners of the zone, or forcing his opponent to drive the ball directly into the dirt–whereas his vertical slider/curveball combo tunnels extremely well, making it difficult for the hitter to tell the difference between fourteen and forty inches of downward movement.

As things currently stand, the Phillies are set to lose Eflin to free agency come the end of the 2022 MLB season. They failed to reach an arbitration agreement with him toward the end of March, and thus, the two parties will head toward a hearing (or perhaps they can come to an extension agreement before it comes to that?)

Working out an extension makes sense for both sides in this scenario–I'm sure Eflin's representation would love to have him develop a bit more of a track record, as well as prove that he can stay healthy for an extended period of time before he hits the open market.

From the Phillies' perspective, why wouldn't they want to lock a guy like Eflin up for a few more years? His upside far outweighs the health concerns, and he is by all accounts a great teammate. At worst, Eflin slots in as your fourth starter for the foreseeable future, right behind Ranger Suárez. At best, he stays healthy, and likely develops into well beyond that. He's only 28 years-old after all; he's hardly begun to discover his full potential.

Even if Eflin does succumb to injury at any point during the duration of this hypothetical extension–the Phillies have three big arms waiting in the wings in Mick Abel, Andrew Painter, and Griff McGarry. They'll also surely take a crack at a 2023 free agent market (where they'll have an impressive sum to spend) that features arms like Joe Musgrove, Noah Syndergaard, and others.

If he can manage to avoid injury, Eflin will easily be a top-50 pitcher in Major League Baseball in 2022 with room to grow–and those kinds of arms can carry a hefty price tag.

The Phillies would be wise to attempt to extend him, and even if they fail to do so, he's due for big things–all beginning with his preliminary start against the Athletics this afternoon.