MLB betting: Odds, preview, picks for Twins-Brewers, Cardinals-Padres, more on 4/3

Twins vs. Brewers

Chris Paddack vs. Joe Ross

Joe Ross returns to the major leagues on Wednesday. He last pitched for the Nationals in 2021 (career 4.26 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, or expected fielding independent pitching) before undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing the entire 2022 season.

Ross signed with the Giants last year and pitched just 14 minor league innings – with poor results. He signed with Milwaukee this winter and posted a 102 Stuff+ rating in spring. He also looked sharp in his final outing this March (5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K).

Chris Paddack returned from Tommy John late last season for the Twins and posted impressive pitching modeling metrics this spring (128 Stuff+, 119 Pitching+). Projection models peg Paddack between a 4.07 and 4.35 FIP for 2024, higher than his career average (4.21 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 3.85 xFIP). Projection models also expect a diminished version of Ross (projected FIP range 4.60-4.68) after Tommy John.

Milwaukee's bullpen is feasting, posting the following line during its 4-0 start: 17 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 16 K. They held the Twins hitless over the final five frames on Tuesday, and it seems impossible to beat the Brewers if they have a lead after six innings.

Even without their closer – Devin Williams – Milwaukee probably still has the best bullpen in baseball. And even without Jhoan Duran, the Twins still have an above-average unit. Since both teams had a day off on Monday, they can deploy their key relievers again on Wednesday.

I also like the defensive quality of both clubs: per Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), the two teams ranked second (+68) and ninth (+33 for Minnesota) last season.

I don't view either offense as particularly potent either. I project Minnesota for a 109 wRC+ against righties (111 in 2023)—but they have consistently struggled without Royce Lews in the lineup. And I project Milwaukee for a 94 wRC+ against righties (90 in 2023).

I projected the Twins as -121 first-half favorites behind Paddack and would bet their F5 or first five innings moneyline to -112. Additionally, I projected the total at 8.1 runs; bet Under 8.5 to -105.

Bet: Twins F5 ML (-112 or better) | Under 8.5 (-105 or better)

Angels vs. Marlins

Patrick Sandoval vs. A.J. Puk

The Marlins Over didn't cash on Tuesday – and neither did my Live Angels -2.5 bet, which I placed anticipating that Bryan Hoeing (career 6.29 ERA, 5.62 FIP, 4.87 xFIP) – who came on in relief of Jesus Luzardo – would finish out the contest. Ultimately, the Angels offense wasted chances in the late innings against Hoeing, and a Bryan De La Cruz solo shot – with one out in the ninth – blew the live run line.

By deploying Hoeing, however, the Marlins saved all of their key relievers, and they rested a bullpen that has thrown more innings this season (31 2/3) than any team except the Dodgers and Padres, who played additional games in Korea.

Additionally, with an off day on Thursday, Miami can aggressively deploy that group, including Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi, Sixto Sanchez, and Tanner Scott, to secure their first win on Wednesday.

In a tight/close game, I project the Marlins bullpen as the superior unit by about a half run (3.85 vs. 4.37 Model Weighted ERA).

The Marlins also have the higher upside starting pitcher, assuming A.J. Puk harnesses his command in this outing. The southpaw dominated in spring (11 2/3 IP, 12 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 20 K), then fell apart (6 BB, 1 K) last Friday against the Pirates.

Still, I don't see value on the F5 or moneyline (projected -112 for Miami)

Los Angeles projects to have a better offense against lefties than righties. Anthony Rendon (106 wRC+ vs. lefties), Aaron Hicks (119 wrC+ vs. lefties), Mike Trout (152), Taylor Ward (128), Brandon Drury (140), Logan O'Hoppe (147), Luis Rengifo (136) and Zach Neto (118) all show superior splits against southpaw pitching.

Still, Miami's late-game bullpen edge pushes their projection to -123; bet the Fish on the moneyline to -115.

Bet: Marlins ML (-115 or better)

Cardinals vs. Padres

Zack Thompson vs. Joe Musgrove

Pitch modeling metrics for this matchup show a pair of starters headed in opposite directions.

Zack Thompson displayed concerning indicators in his first start against the Dodgers, posting a 59 Stuff+ rating alongside a 91.1 mph fastball, down from 81 Stuff+ and 93.1 mph when he worked as a starter last season. The velocity was also down on Thompson's slider (-2.2 mph) and curveball (-1.9 mph).

Joe Musgrove also had a rough outing against the Dodgers and wasn't particularly sharp in losing to the Giants (5 2/3 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 3 K) either. Still, Musgrove has posted a 109 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ through two starts; an upgrade from last season (106 Sutff+, 102 Pitching+)

Projection systems put Musgrove between a 3.84 and 4.06 FIP over the remainder of the 2024 season, and it has Thompson anywhere between 4.37 and 4.84.

Based on their pitch modeling metrics, I like Musgrove near the more optimistic end of his FIP projections and view Thompson at the more pessimistic end of his range. I also see value in the Padres' F5 moneyline for Wednesday.

Take San Diego up to -145 in the first half; Musgrove is the far superior pitcher, and San Diego has a slight offensive advantage, too. The Cardinals' offense projects better against lefties than righties.

Bet: Padres F5 ML (-145 or better)

Tigers vs. Mets

Casey Mize vs. Adrian Houser

Tuesday's matchup between the Mets and Tigers was rained out. Wednesday's forecast calls for similar conditions, and the teams may not play until Thursday.

Casey Mize is likely under-projected for 2024 (projected FIP range 4.56-4.89). The former No. 1 overall pick — who missed the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery — revamped his pitch mix and posted solid numbers this spring (combined 18 2/3 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 7 BB, 19 K).

I give Detroit the starting pitching advantage with Mize facing Adrian Houser (4.21 xERA, 4.30 xFIP last season; projected FIP range 4.59-4.78). Still, I give the Mets a slight bullpen advantage and prefer their position player group offensively (projected 112 vs. 98 wRC+).

The Mets' offense has been held to one or zero runs in three of four games, but I make them -144 favorites in Wednesday's contest and would bet their moneyline to -133. I had initially bet on their moneyline in both halves for Tuesday – and am keeping the same projection – but considering I think Mize is better than Houser – and potentially severely under-projected too – I'll skip the first half wager and play the Mets' full game moneyline only.

New York has gone 3-for-17 (.176 average) with runners in scoring position, compared to 9-for-24 (.375) for the Tigers. Both teams are due for regression in that category.

Bet: Mets ML (-133 or better)

Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, April 3

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• Los Angeles Dodgers F5 (-210, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to -215)
• Miami Marlins (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
• Minnesota Twins F5 (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -112)
• Minnesota Twins / Milwaukee Brewers Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -105)
• New York Mets (-117, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -133)
• San Diego Padres F5 (-140, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -145)