MLB best bets: Will New York Yankees prevail in competitive AL East? 

New York Yankees

Sorry to be that guy, but we're going to be. This certainly isn't the best Yankees (+115) team Brian Cashman has put together, but they are the best team in the AL East, and our pick to win the division. Considering how competitive this division is we were expecting the line to be closer to +130 or +140, but +115 is still OK. Aaron Judge is coming off a career year, Carlos Rodon will eventually bolster a rotation that is thin at the back end and believe it or not, manager Aaron Boone might be on the hot seat. Boone knows the expectation is for the Yankees to win a World Series every year, and he hasn't done that yet. To be honest, they haven't gotten that close either. If New York gets off to a slow start, it's more than possible Boone finds his way out of New York. However, we don't see that happening, and when the regular season is over, we see the Yankees atop the AL East leaderboard.

Win total: New York's over/under win total is set at 94, and we like the over. Best of all the line is +100 on the over, too. New York is far from healthy with starting pitchers Luis Severino and Carlos Rodon on the injured list to open the season, but once they get back, New York should be OK. Some people forget the Bronx Bombers were an abysmal 10-18 in August and still won the division and 99 games last year. We don't see that happening again this season. New York might have to outslug its opponents early on, but they're more than capable of doing that. Trust us, take the over.

Toronto Blue Jays

No way around it. Toronto is on the rise and New York's biggest threat in the AL East. However, the Blue Jays' starting rotation was its biggest weakness last year, and we're not convinced Toronto did enough this winter to make it all that much better. There's no denying Alek Manoah is an ace, but outside of Manoah, the Blue Jays have some question marks in their rotation. Jose Berrios has underachieved since coming over from Minnesota in 2021 and is coming off a career-worst season and southpaws Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun Jin Ryu were both hot garbage last year. Could all three bounce back this year? Potentially, yes, but highly unlikely. Signing Chris Bassitt in free agency was big, but Bassitt is 34 years old and we think it's safe to say his best years are behind him. Same goes for Kevin Gausman, who is 32. We still like Toronto to make the playoffs (-290), just not to win the AL East. 

Win total: Toronto's over/under win total is set at 92, and we like the under (-110). The Blue Jays are certainly not any worse than they were a year ago. However, the AL East as a whole is better. We don't see Boston finishing under .500 again this year and Baltimore is more than capable of surpassing its 83 wins from a year ago. If both those things happen, then something has to give, and we see it via the Toronto win column. 

Tampa Bay Rays

Every year, we say this is the year the Rays underachieve, and every year they prove us wrong. But we think this is actually the year where Tampa regresses. We wouldn't be shocked if Tampa misses the playoffs (+158), and there's no way we're taking them to win the AL East. This team has too many holes on offense and replacing veterans like Mike Zunino and Kevin Kiermaier might be harder than people think. From top to bottom, the Rays might have the best pitching in the AL, or at least in the top three, but this team struggled to score last year, and we don't see that changing this year. Same thing defensively. Wander Franco is the team's best position player — sorry, Randy Arozarena — but Franco has yet to play more than 83 games in a season. That's a problem, and if he goes down, Tampa Bay is simply SOL. Plus, starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow is on the shelf and the longer he's out, the worse the Rays are. 

Win total: Tampa Bay's over/under win total is set at 89, and of all the over/under totals out there, the under here (-110) is our most confident play. Tampa Bay isn't nearly as good as they were year last season and still managed to win 86 games. So, no shot we're taking the over. Kevin Cash is a great manager, but he's going to have his hands full this season, especially in an uber-competitive AL East. If there's one bet you should go big on, it's the under of 89 wins on the Rays.

Boston Red Sox

Last year was rough, real rough for Boston. But we expect the Red Sox to be better this year. Rarely does one starting pitcher make such a big difference in the win/loss column, but when Chris Sale is healthy and pitching well, the Red Sox win. When he's not, the Red Sox lose. Sale is currently on the injured list with a stress fracture in his right rib cage, and it's hard to exactly say when he's going to be back, but he is expected to be back during the first half of the season. The poor guy just can't catch a break and is going to be left off the team's Opening Day roster for the third consecutive year. 

Win total: However, if Sale comes back healthy and is able to make 20 starts this year, we expect Boston to finish right around .500. Boston went to town in free agency after signing closer Kenley Jensen, starting pitcher Corey Kluber and third baseman/designated hitter Justin Turner, and those signings alone make Boston much better. Yes, all three are past their prime, but they still have some left in the tank. Look for Boston to smash the over of 77.5 wins (-110), and the be in the playoff hunt all year. If Sale was currently healthy, we'd take Boston to make the postseason (+320), but once again, he's not, which is why we're taking the Red Sox to fall a tad short of the postseason (-400).

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are full of young talent, but the bad news for Baltimore is you don't win with potential. You win with results on the field. Ultimately, we think the O's are still a year away from making some serious noise in the AL East, which is why we're not touching them to win the AL East. It's certainly a little tempting with the line at 25/1, but this team is a still a year or two away. The position player talent is there but the pitching still isn't. The Orioles finished in the bottom half of the league in overall ERA and were in the lower third of the league in starter ERA last year, and while we expect the Orioles pitching to be better this year, we don't expect them to be slightly better than 13th or 14th overall. Until we see the pitching take the next step, we're not touching Baltimore. 

WIn total: Same thing goes for the playoffs. Baltimore hung in there a lot longer than we expected last year, but we still don't see them making the postseason (-400). Baltimore won 83 games last year, and their over/under win total is currently at 78. This is a real tough won to gauge, but we're going to take the over (-115) in this one. However, don't be surprised if you're sweating this one out in October.