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MLB Best Bets: Will anyone hit 50 or more home runs?

By Jared Shlensky | Last updated 3/16/23

Remember we told you about the regular-season special bets Caesars Sportsbook is offering for the upcoming MLB season? OK, here's one of the specials that appealed to us earlier this week. And now we have another one we really like.

The bet is whether or not anyone will hit 50 or more home runs during the regular season. If you don't think anyone will reach the 50 plateau, you can bet "no" at even odds, or if you think at least one player will hit 50, you can bet "yes" at -130 odds.

Aaron Judge was the only player to hit 50 or more runs last year — he finished with 62 — and considering no one hit 50 or more home runs in 2021 or 2018, we're a little surprised the line is all the way up to -130 for "yes." Personally, we think the lines should be closer to -115 "yes," -105 "no," but you should still bet yes, even with the line at -130.

There's not a ton of players who are capable of doing this but five guys in particular do stand out, and assuming at least two of them play a full season, we're willing to bet a solid chunk of change on "yes." Judge is obviously the name that comes to mind first after hitting 62 last year but if Mike Trout can avoid any serious injuries and play around 135 games, he's just as likely as Judge to hit 50. Judge has hit 50 or more homers in a season twice and though Trout has yet to do it, he did hit 40 despite only playing in 119 games. That's remarkable, and if he didn't get hurt last year, Trout very well could have finished with more runs home runs than Judge. Scary, right?

But Trout and Judge aren't the only two capable of hitting 50. Kyle Schwarber led the National League with a career-high 46 home runs last season and now that the designated hitter is in both leagues, don't be surprised if Schwarber is consistently right around 50 home runs for the next three or four years.

Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are two other names that deserve to be mentioned. Alonso hit 53 home runs when he was a rookie in 2019 and hit 40 last year. And the main reason Alonso is on this list is because of his durability. The Mets' first baseman has never played in less than 152 games in a full season, and similar to Schwarber, with the DH available in the NL, that shouldn't change this season.

Meanwhile, Guerrero Jr. hit 48 home runs two years ago, and though his home run total dipped to 32 last year, we're not all that concerned. Guerrero Jr. is only 24 years old and has yet to play his best baseball.

These five — Judge, Trout, Schwarber, Alonso and Guerrero Jr. — aren't the only players in baseball capable of hitting 50 or more dingers this year. Shohei Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton and Ronald Acuna Jr. are more than capable as well.

The point is, it isn't too farfetched to say multiple guys hit 50 or more runs this year, let alone one. And that's why you should bet "yes" on at least one player hitting 50 or more homers during the regular season. Again, the line isn't great at -130, but it's good enough.

The Bet: Player to hit 50 or more regular season home runs (Yes, -130 odds)

Bet $130 to win $100.

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