MLB Best Bets: Who’s going to lead MLB in runs scored?

Major League Baseball knows fans love action. The problem is there hasn’t been enough action … at least according to the casual fan. So, MLB decided to make some major rule changes. Most notably, installing a pitch clock to speed up the game and shorten the overall length of games.

MLB also decided to ban the shift and increase the size of the bases with a goal of more offense. Eliminating the shift should result in more hits, especially for pull hitters, and increasing the size of the bases might encourage teams try to steal more often. 

Assuming all goes well, MLB should get its wish and see offense increase dramatically from last year to this year. Which brings us to the big question — who’s going to lead MLB in runs scored? Will it be last year’s MLB home run camp Aaron Judge? Or maybe walk machine Juan Soto?  

The Favorites:
Juan Soto, San Diego Padres (+600)
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+800)
Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves (+1000)

Juan Soto has never led MLB in runs scored, yet he’s the favorite to do so this year. We’re having a hard time jumping on board with this one. We’re not touching Soto, at least with a line of 6/1. Soto is on a much better team after getting traded from Washington to San Diego before last year’s trade deadline, and we think the Padres are going to be really good this year, but do we expect them to be one of the top offenses in baseball. No. So like we said, Soto is a no-go for us.

Aaron Judge dominated baseball last year, and it resulted in a major pay day from the Yankees. Not only did Judge set an American League single season record with 62 home runs last year, he also led MLB in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and oh yeah, runs scored. And as expected, Judge is near the top of the list — second best odds to be exact — once again to lead the majors in runs scored. But should he be?  

Ronald Acuna Jr. led the National League in runs scored in 2019, however, he’s never lead the majors in runs scored. Acuna Jr. is more than capable of doing so, but he’ll need to stay healthy and play a full season. That hasn’t happened since 2019, and for that reason alone, we refuse to put any money on Acuna Jr. Acuna Jr.’s line of 10/1 is actually pretty appealing, but his prior health history scares us too much.

Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1100)

Betts finished second in all of baseball in runs scored last year, and led the majors in runs scored in 2018 and 2019. So, to be honest, it’s kind of surprising he’s not even listed in the top three. Betts is one of the most well-rounded players in the game, and can create runs in so many ways — stealing bases, home runs, first-to-third on a single, etc. — and that will always make him a top candidate to lead MLB in runs scored.

The Dodgers have been one of the best offensive teams in baseball since Betts got traded from Boston to Los Angeles in 2020 but that might not be the case this year. The Dodgers lost offensive studs Justin Turner and Trea Turner in free agency, and after losing Gavin Lux for the season in spring training, the Dodgers offense definitely doesn’t look quite as good — at least on paper — as it has in the past.

And that’s a problem. Especially if you plan on betting on Betts to lead MLB in runs scored. It makes it a whole lot easier to score when you’ve got guys behind you that consistently deliver. Will new guys step up for the Dodgers this year? We’ll have to wait and see.

The good thing about Betts is that he’s been pretty consistent throughout his career. He hits, hits for power, can run, etc. Ultimately though, the Dodgers' new-look offense scares us, and not in a good way. Betts’ line of 11/1 is tempting, but not enough to bet big on.

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+800)

People forget Aaron Judge is so much more than just a home run hitter. Yes, he strikes out a ton, but he’ll take his walks, regardless if they’re intentional or not, and he’s faster than given credit for. Just like he did with the home run crown, Judge coasted to the runs scored title last year.

Did an AL single-season record of 62 home runs make scoring runs that much easier? Absolutely. But even if Judge doesn’t hit 62 home runs again this year, you should strongly consider wagering at least some money on him to lead baseball in runs scored. And with better odds than Juan Soto, there’s zero reason to bet on Soto and not Judge.

Judge is on a better offensive club, is coming off a career year, and arguably the most feared hitter in baseball. Judge led the AL in walks last year, and outside of a healthy Trout, no one else in the AL is in the running to do so.

Best part about Judge is that he’s played in 148 or more games in each of the last two seasons, so durability isn’t an issue. We expect the AL East to be much more competitive this year, which means Judge very well could play in every game. You should definitely bet at least some money on Judge, just maybe not too much.

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (+1200)

When Mike Trout is healthy, he’s the best player in baseball. No, not Aaron Judge. Not Mookie Betts. Not even teammate Shohei Ohtani. It’s Trout.

Trout played in just 119 games last year and still hit 40 home runs and scored 85 runs. Imagine if he played in 130 games or more. He very well could have hit more homers than Judge and scored more runs than him too.

But Trout has had a hard time staying healthy the last couple of seasons, and if the Angels have any shot at keeping Ohtani around beyond this year, they need to show him they can win. And the Angels can win, but they need Trout to be healthy.

Trout has played in 140 games or more just once in the last five seasons, and even though he’s not young, it’s not like he’s old either. He will turn 32 in August.

The Angels really struggled to score runs without Trout last year, but they made it a point of emphasis this offseason to improve their overall lineup. Los Angeles signed Brandon Drury, Taylor Ward and Hunter Renfroe over the winter, and even though none of them wow you necessarily, they are solid upgrades from last season. The Halos should score more runs this season, which means Trout should too.

Trout has led MLB in runs scored three times in his career — 2012, 2014 and 2016 — and if he can play in 145 games, there’s no reason he can’t do it again, even if the Angels fail to finish above .500 for the eighth consecutive season. Trout’s health is really the only thing holding him back from winning another MVP or leading MLB in runs or home runs. And with a line of 12/1, we just can’t resist. Maybe avoid going all in on Trout, but don’t be afraid to wager a good amount on him either.

Others to consider:
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (+1600)
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1800)

Our Pick: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (+1200)

Bet $100 to win $1,200.

All odds via Caesars Sportsbook