MLB best bets: Who will emerge from the AL Central dogfight?

AL Central

The American League Central is usually the weakest of the three divisions in the AL, and we don't see that changing in 2023. And just like last, it was a three-headed race between Minnesota, Cleveland and Chicago. Sorry, Detroit and Kansas City, we also don't see that changing in 2023. Cleveland won the AL Central last year, but they don't pull away till September. Don't be surprised if this division goes down to the last couple series though this year, especially with high hopes for the White Sox and Twins.

Chicago White Sox

We took the White Sox to win the AL Central last year, and boy did that backfire. Tony La Russa was awful as the team's manager. Defensively, Chicago was one of the worst in baseball. The power just wasn't there, and worst of all, this team couldn't stay healthy. We're pretty confident first-year manager Pedro Grifol can't do any worse than La Russa did last year, so that alone makes Chicago better. And we can't see Chicago being any less healthy than they were last year, and with Andrew Vaughn moving over to first base, the White Sox should be better defensively. Losing Jose Abreu is going to be tough, but Chicago has the talent and depth to win. But you don't win on paper, you win on the field. Expect this division to be a dogfight, but we're high on Chicago, and with the line at +210, you should be too.

Win total: Chicago's over/under win total is 82.5 and we're betting big on the over. Chicago sucked last year and still won 81 games. So, winning two more games than they did last year shouldn't be much of a problem. And considering how weak the AL Central is a whole, betting the over on Chicago's win total makes that much more sense. And since we have Chicago win the AL Central, bet big on the White Sox to make the playoffs (+115) too.

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland was so good at winning the close games last year, especially the low-scoring ones, but we're not so sure that happens again this year. Cleveland's bullpen and defense is elite, and the starting rotation is definitely better than average, but this offense scares us a lot. Outside of Jose Ramirez, this team lacks another elite bat. And that's a problem, especially with how hitter-friendly some of these stadiums are in the AL Central. Banking on Cleveland to be just as good as they were last year in close games is super risky and the main reason why we're not taking them to repeat as division champs. A lot went right for Cleveland last year, and we're not convinced that happens again in 2023. Terry Francona is a future Hall of Fame manager, but to get this team back to the postseason, he's going to have to do some of his best managing, especially in AL Central action. 

Win total: Cleveland's over/under win total is set at 87.5 and no way are we taking the over (-110). In no way, shape or form are the Guardians better than they were last year, and without a 21-8 September, Cleveland wouldn't have gotten to 90 wins. This could be a close cover, but we like the under. Same goes for the Guardians to miss the postseason (+130). Certainly, a little risky, but it's worth it. 

Minnesota Twins

Everyone knows the Twins can hit, the question is can they pitch? Well, PECOTA certainly thinks so as they have them winning the AL Central, and believe us, we're tempted to take Minnesota too, but we just don't trust the pitching enough. Acquiring Pablo Lopez from Miami definitely strengthens the Twins' rotation, but outside of Sonny Gray, the Twins have a bunch of question marks in the rotation. Kenta Maeda is coming off Tommy John surgery, so we're not exactly sure what to expect from him. Joe Ryan was solid last year, but can he replicate last year's performance? We're not so sure. Another problem is all of Minnesota's starters are right-handed. It's not that big of a deal, but it is a little concerning. If the Twins run into a left-handed hitting dominant team, they could be in some trouble. Expect Minnesota to be in the division hunt till the end, but we see them just falling short. 

Win total: Minnesota's over/under win total is at 83.5 and we're going to take the under (-110). Minnesota is definitely better than last year where they won 78 games, but we're not so sure they're six games better. Re-signing Carlos Correa was big for Minnesota, but don't forget Correa had not one, but two deals from other teams worth more money but Correa couldn't pass his physical. That's concerning, and we're not so sure he plays a full season. And Minnesota is going to need former top pick Royce Lewis at some point this season, but when exactly will he be healthy enough to play after tearing his ACL? There's just simply too many unknows, which is why we're also taking Minnesota to miss the playoffs (-135).

Detroit Tigers

Detroit was a hot mess last year and we don't see that changing at all in 2023. Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez were disappointments after signing big deals with the Tigers prior to the 2022 season, and even if they bounce back this year, we don't see it being enough. The Tigers were just one game better than Kansas City last year at 66-96 and we see them finishing with slightly less than 70 wins again this year. This team has just way too many weaknesses, which is why you shouldn't touch them to do anything good this year. The Tigers are certainly not making the playoffs (-3500), and even with a line of 25/1 to win the division, don't touch it. 

Win total: The Tigers over/under win total is at 69.5 and we're taking the under (-110). Expect this to be a close cover, but the under is still the right play. Detroit did very little in free agency to improve and even if Baez and Rodriguez bounce back, this team just doesn't have enough talent to make any noise. 

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City might have a new manager in Matt Quatraro, but even a Hall of Famer skipper like Joe Torre or Sparky Anderson couldn't do much with this team, at least this year. The Royals have young talent in guys like Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino, but they're just not quite ready to make a push for the division crown. Again, at least not yet. In a year or two, yeah, maybe but not yet. The Royals pitching was terrible last year, and we don't see that changing this year. Not only does the pitching lack depth, it also lacks talent. And that's a big, big problem. 

Win total: The over/under win total is set at 68.5 and we're going to go out on a limb and take the over (-110). The Royals won 65 games last year and they're better than they were last year. How much better is the question. We certainly think they're four games better, which is why we're jumping on the over. However, KC is not a playoff team (-4000), but betting them to miss the playoffs really isn't that good of an idea because there's no real money to be made on it.