MLB best bets: Should you back the Atlanta Braves to repeat as NL East champs?

NL East

The NL East is the best division in the National League. Three of the five teams — New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta — are capable of winning this division, the NL Pennant and even the World Series, and that makes picking the winner in this one that much harder.

Atlanta got hot in the final two months of the regular season to take the NL East right from under the Mets, and then Philly balled out in the postseason to get to the World Series. The NL East could come down to the last couple days of the season just like last year, so fasten your seat, and be prepared for a long, rocky ride.

Best part is the odds line on all five teams to win the NL East is at least +100, which means you automatically double your money. That’s the good news. The bad news, this is hardest of the three divisions to pick.

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta is the betting favorite (+100) to win the NL East and we’re taking them to repeat as Division champs. And why shouldn’t we? This team is stacked from top to bottom. Most importantly, superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is fully healthy. And if Acuna can play in at least 130 games he’s capable of winning NL MVP. Atlanta wanted to add another bat this offseason and find a catcher they could platoon with Travis d’Arnaud to save his legs. Most were expecting the Braves to sign or trade for two guys to make that happen, but Atlanta killed two birds with one stone after acquiring All-Star catcher Sean Murphy from Oakland. Add Murphy’s bat to the middle of this lineup, and it’s almost as if we forgot all about Dansby Swanson signing with the Cubs. Plus, Michael Harris will be with the team from the start of the season, second baseman Ozzie Albies is healthy, and you already know how good Matt Olson and Austin Riley are.

Offensively, the Braves can hang with anyone, and the pitching is nearly just as good. Spencer Strider and Max Fried make for one heck of a 1-2 combination in the rotation and though Atlanta doesn’t have a clear-cut closer after losing Kenley Jensen during free agency, guys like Kirby Yates, A.J. Minter, Joe Jimenez, Collin McHugh, and Rafael Iglesias are more than capable of closing out games. Once again, the Braves are contenders.

Win total: Atlanta’s over/under win total is 95.5, and with how deep this division is, we thought is would be around 92.5 or 93.5 wins. But don’t let the high win total discourage you from taking the over (-110). It took 101 wins to claim the NL East last year, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it takes at least 100 wins to win this division again. Atlanta always dominates against its division. You might be sweating this one out till the end, but it’s the right play.

New York Mets

New York knew it needed to find someone to replace Jacob deGrom after losing the former Cy Young Award winner to Texas in free agency, and the Mets did just that by signing the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer in Justin Verlander over the winter. Verlander and Max Scherzer make for the game’s best 1-2 punch in the game, and if New York is going to have any shot at winning this division, they’re going to need both to stay healthy and pitch like Hall of Famers. We’re not so sure that happens, which is one reason why we’re not sold on the Mets to win the NL East. Another reason — no Edwin Diaz. Diaz tore a tendon in his knee while playing for Team Puerto Rico during the World Baseball Classic following an on-field group celebration after defeating the Dominican Republic, and that’s a huge loss. Diaz is one of the best closers in the game and New York is going to have to find a way to replace him. No easy task.

The Mets were one of the best offensive teams in all of baseball last year. Pete Alonso is an elite power hitter and Francisco Lindor is one of the best shortstops in baseball. However, New York has some unknowns at the back end of its rotation. And with Scherzer’s most recent health issues, that’s a problem for an already thin starting rotation.

Win total: Manager Buck Showalter should still be able to get 90 wins out of this team, but it’s not going to be easy. And with the Mets’ win total set at 92.5, we’re going to take the under (+100), despite the book expecting New York to finish over 92.5 wins. The Mets aren’t exactly a young group and are one more injury away from being in big trouble. We still like the Mets to make the postseason (-450), but we’re not taking them to win the NL East or win more than 92 games.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies got hot at the end of the regular season, and it carried over to the postseason. Despite being underdogs at the start of the postseason, Philly took down St. Louis, Atlanta and San Diego to win the NL Pennant before falling short to Houston in the World Series. People forget Joe Girardi started the 2022 season as Philly’s manager but got canned after a disappointing start to the season. Rob Thomson was named the interim manager shortly after and then named the team’s permanent manager after guiding the Phillies to the World Series. And as good as Philadelphia was late in the regular season, there’s no denying they’re even better this year. Dave Dombrowski went to work during free agency and came away with All-Star shortstop Trea Turner and left-handed reliever Gregory Soto. Even with Bryce Harper on the IL to start the season and Rhys Hoskins out for the year after tearing his ACL in spring training, Philly might still be the best offensive team in this division. The back end of the rotation and the Phillies defense scares us though, which why we’re not taking the Phillies to win the NL East.

Win total: However, we like Philly to get back to the postseason as a Wild Card team again in 2023 (-175) and go over its set 87.5-win total (+100). We’re really surprised the book isn’t all that confident the Phillies win at least 88 games, and you should take advantage. The Phillies are way better than they were last year and still won 87 games. Once this team gets fully healthy, they’re going to be dangerous.

Miami Marlins

We expect the Marlins to better than last year but let’s face it, the Marlins aren’t on the same level as Atlanta, New York or Philadelphia. Acquiring AL batting champ Luis Arraez from Minnesota and left-handed pitcher AJ Puk from Oakland were awesome additions, but not enough to put Miami over the hump. The starting rotation should be good once again behind reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara. And maybe first-year manager Skip Schumaker is the savior Miami desperately needs, but we’re not drinking the Kool-Aid quite yet. The Marlins' bullpen terrifies us and though Miami might lead the NL in stolen bases again, this team still lacks power. Banning the shift will make that a little bit easier to overcome, but this team is still at least a year away from contending for the NL East.  

Win total: Miami’s over/under win total is at 75.5 and we’re going to take a risk and bet the over (-105). We’re not so sure the Marlins get to .500, but 78 wins is doable. Certainly, a lot has to go right, but with a more balanced schedule across MLB and a better overall team from a year ago, the Marlins are capable of winning nine more games than they did last year. The key is going to be a strong start, and if that happens, Miami might be a team on the rise, but they’re still not going to the postseason (-500).

Washington Nationals

Sorry, Nationals fans, but we don’t have any good news for you. The Nats were the worst team in baseball last year. This team lacks talent and needs to start rebuilding faster. They’re not going anywhere, so why not trade all your best players for prospects? We could give you some false hope by telling you every year one team sneaks up out of the blue and makes the playoffs, but you know what? Washington isn’t that team. At least not this this year, and probably not next year either.

Win total: Washington finished 55-107 last year, and we truly believe the Nats will be worse this year than they were last year. So, bet big on Washington to final with less than 59 wins (-110). Patrick Corbin, who was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball last year, is starting Opening Day. If that doesn’t sum up how bad Washington is, we don’t know what does.

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook