MLB best bets: Chicago Cubs will make some noise in NL Central

NL Central

The National League Central was the weakest of the three divisions in the NL last year and we expect the same this year. However, don’t go crazy on NL Central favorite St. Louis quite yet. The Cubs, yes, the Chicago Cubs improved significantly this winter and are a team to keep an eye on. Same goes for Milwaukee. Craig Counsell is one of the most underrated managers in the league and with the Cardinals not getting any younger, they could regress this year. This division has a lot of young talent and collectively is probably the most balanced of the three, so be careful with your division pick.

St. Louis Cardinals

Yeah, we know we just said St. Louis could regress this year, and we do expect them to, however we still like the Cardinals (-130) to win the division. Honestly though, with the line at -130, you shouldn’t bet big on the Redbirds though. The value isn’t there and St. Louis isn’t overwhelmingly better than the rest of the pack in the NL Central. St. Louis shouldn’t have any problem scoring — especially after watching reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt and All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado perform well in the World Baseball Classic — but the pithing does scare us. The rotation is full of guys north of 30 — highlighted by 41-year-old Adam Wainwright — and the bullpen was an issue in last year’s Wild Card Series against Philadelphia, and it kind of scares us this year.

Win total: St. Louis won the NL Central last year with 93 wins, but we don’t see any team in this division winning 90 games this year. Out of all six divisions, this might be the division that requires the fewest wins, and with the Cardinals' over/under win total set at 89, we’re taking the under. This team isn’t better than last year’s squad, and a 4-5 drop in the win column is certainly realistic, especially with how good of an offseason the Cubs had.

Chicago Cubs

The Rangers were our sleeper pick in the American League, and the Cubs are our sleeper pick in the National League. The Cubs didn’t have a very good team last year, and David Ross still got 74 wins out of Chicago. Ross is a much better manager than he’s been given credit for, and after signing Eric Hosmer, Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson and Trey Mancini this offseason, the Cubs are significantly better offensively. Losing Willson Contreras to St. Louis of all team’s stings, but if the Cubs pitching — specifically the bullpen — is just a tad better than last year and Chicago’s first-year players perform, especially Bellinger and Hosmer, the Cubs should make some noise. 

Win total: Chicago's win/loss total is at 78, and since we're taking the Cubs to make the playoffs (+280), we're obviously taking the over on the win total (-110). This division is weak, and we expect the Cubs to take advantage. A lot has to go right for the Cubs this year, but we're confident it does. Every year one team from each league surprises all of baseball by making the postseason, and Chicago is our pick for this year.

Milwaukee Brewers

It wasn't all that long ago Milwaukee was in the postseason behind stars Josh Hader and Ryan Braun, but sadly, those days are over. The Brewers are still trying to find out what they exactly have on their roster, and with Corbin Burnes voicing his displeasure about how the Brewers handled his arbitration hearing, it's pretty likely the former Cy Young Award winner is moved before the trade deadline. If we were convinced Burnes was happy and on good terms with management, we'd tell you to bet a little bit of money on the Brew Crew to win the division at +170, but that line isn't where it should be. It should be closer to +250 or even +300. Expect the Brewers' pitching to keep them in games all year long, but Burnes is nearly irreplaceable, and we're convinced his days in Milwaukee are coming to an end sooner rather than later.

Win total: Milwaukee's over/under win total is 84.5 and you should take the under (-110). We already established the whole Burnes situation and it's also no secret Christian Yelich has underachieved since coming over from Miami. The Brewers' bullpen should be better than last year, and the rotation has depth, but this lineup doesn't. That's a problem, especially for a team with a set win total of 84.5. So, take the under and bet big on the Brewers to miss out on the postseason (-130) too.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have quietly had a nice offseason, but they're not ready to compete for the NL Central for at least another year. The pitching, particularly the bullpen, is still really bad, and even though Pittsburgh might score more than some expect, it's hard to win with a bad bullpen in today's game. Bringing back veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen was a great move by management and Oneil Cruz is a star in the making, but that's nowhere near enough to win a division, yes, even the measly NL Central. We know a 60/1 line looks appealing, but don't get baited in. It's not the Pirates time yet.

Win total: The Pirates knew it needed to upgrade its pitching, and they did by signing starters Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill over the winter. But they forget about one thing: the bullpen. Pittsburgh had the second-worst bullpen ERA in baseball last year and they didn't do a whole lot to fix it. Pittsburgh isn't making the playoffs (-7000) but with such a heavy line on them to miss out on the postseason, you shouldn't bet it. However, we do encourage you to wager some money on the Bucs to finish with more than 67.5 wins (-110). We keep saying it, but this division is weak, and Pittsburgh has more than enough to consistently beat bottom of the barrel teams like Washington, Cincinnati and Oakland. 

Cincinnati Reds

Did you know Ken Griffey Jr. is one of the highest-paid people on the Reds payroll? Notice how we say person, and not player, since Griffey Jr. hasn't played for the Reds in 15 years and is in the Hall of Fame. But it's true. Deferred payments must be awesome for a retired player and not so much for the team. The Reds were tied with Pirates for last in the NL Central, and we have them finishing dead last this year. And don't be surprised if they don't even get to 60 wins. The pitching was brutal was last year and we expect the same this year. It's hard to win without good pitching, and Cincinnati's pitching might be the second worst in all of baseball outside of Washington.

Win total: Even if Cincinnati does better than expected to start the season, expect the Reds to be sellers at the trade deadline in order to acquire prospects. The Reds aren't going anywhere, and they know it. The over/under win total is set at 66, and considering how we already told you this team is worse than last year's 62-win club, you should bet the under (-110). 

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook