Middling teams improving will make for a more competitive American League playoff race

Finished is the long and mundane offseason drag and spring training is now here. With that, projections and speculations are trickling in as more fans and baseball insiders try to guess the layout of the 2024 season.

One thing evident throughout these past few months is the clear lack of major offseason moves from the American League (AL) East compared to other divisions. The good news is that AL East will be a fiercely competitive and exciting division this season once again, but the bad news is that a handful of others around the league have worked to improve their rosters to become true contenders. While AL East’s status as a perennial contender won’t change anytime soon, it’s undeniable that all five teams could be in for a rude awakening as they head into this spring.

To be fair, all AL East teams have strong rosters. No team in this division won fewer than 78 games and they were all able to hold their own in play outside of the division. Remember, the AL East had a winning percentage of .623 in April 2023, a historic number for a five-team division over that period of time, according to Sarah Langs. This was all possible either because teams knew how to develop their young players or because they made bigger signings to fill in their holes effectively. 

The biggest moves made in the AL East this summer came from the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, who traded for slugger Juan Soto and ace Corbin Burnes, respectively. The Blue Jays tried and failed for Shohei Ohtani and wound up with Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the Rays sold off some veteran names like Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot to get younger and cheaper, and the Red Sox have largely stood pat.

Outside of the AL East, a few teams made some major additions and should look to climb up the ladder this year. Some active teams were the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros. These teams took a risk to sign free-agents like Kenta Maeda and Michael Wacha while bringing in talents like Jorge Polanco and John Schrieber through trades. One of the more memorable moves is Jose Altuve’s extension signing from Houston – this signalled that the Astros were willing to do what it takes to bounce back from a frustrating season. All these moves certainly pose more challenges to AL East teams’ future in the playoffs down the road even if they don’t threaten the immediate future.

Another facet of this offseason is that other teams in the National League (NL) also have become creative in improving their teams. The Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants were active during the offseason to either trade for more players or sign all-star level – in some cases, mega stars – players to fill in their roster gaps. The competition is becoming even more difficult and the rising competitiveness isn’t particularly the best news for AL East in the long run.

The PECOTA standings projections from Baseball Prospectus demonstrate how steep the competition will be this season, especially in the American League. Nine teams are projected to win at least 84 games and four of those teams are in the AL East. There are three division-winner spots and three wild-card spots available so if these projections wind up being anywhere near accurate, a few teams are going to have strong performances and come up short.