Diamondbacks 2022 Season Player Reviews: Ian Kennedy

Season Review

Ian Kennedy was a first round draft pick out of USC in 2006. Taken by the Yankees 21st overall, he was traded to the Diamondbacks prior to the 2009 season in the infamous three way trade that sent Max Scherzer to the Tigers. 

Kennedy had a career year for the Diamondbacks in 2011 going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, leading the pitching staff to a division title. But two years later he was traded to the Padres at the trade deadline for two relievers. Reaching free agency after the 2015 season he signed a big dollar contract with the Royals. That seemed like a good deal after the first season when he threw 196 innings and went 11-11 with a 3.68 ERA. But after struggling in 2017-18, Kennedy was converted to relief pitching in 2019. 

He found success in the new role, racking up 30 saves while blowing just four and posting a 3.41 ERA. 2020 was a lost season for Kennedy, but in 2021 he bounced back pitching for Texas and Philadelphia, netting 26 saves with a 3.20 ERA.

Always a fly ball and somewhat homer prone pitcher, by this time in his career Kennedy had become almost exclusively a fastball pitcher, throwing his four seamer 81% of the time, but his velocity was still good at over 94 MPH with good control. His location mistakes were hammered however. Spanning 2020-21 he surrendered 19 homers in just 70 innings of work. Nonetheless the Diamondbacks felt strongly enough about the 37 year old reliever's veteran experience to sign him to a one year deal with an option for 2023. His role would be Mark Melancon's setup man and to provide depth and closing experience as well. 

The  2022 season started off poorly, as he took the loss in his very first outing on April 9th, surrendering two runs in the 8th inning of a tie ball game with the Padres. He had an 8th inning blown save on April 27th, but ended up getting the win when the Dbacks scored in the bottom half of the inning. At that point his ERA was 5.63. However Kennedy began to settle in and was more effective going forward. 

Between April 29th and July 3rd Kennedy worked in 24 games, throwing 19.1 innings with a 2.75 ERA. He had four saves, with one blown save and also registered 6 holds in that span. He did take three losses however and his underlying peripherals suggested that his ERA might not have been reflective of his quality, as he had given up three homers and 8 walks, leading to a 4.38 FIP.

Kennedy had to go on the IL with a strained calf on July 4th.  He returned on July 22nd, and two days later blew a save in the 7th inning to the Nationals. By August Manager Torey Lovullo decided to go to a closer by committee due to Melancon's own struggles. At first it seemed to work as Kennedy picked up four saves in the first half of August. There was another loss sprinkled in there however when he gave up 9th inning homer in a tie game against Colorado August 6th. Then on August 16th he gave up a walk off two run homer to Brandon Crawford in San Francicso to blow a 1-0 lead in the 9th. That was actually his first 9th inning blown save, as the previous three had come in the 7th or 8th innings.

Still by September September 2nd Kennedy had lowered his ERA to 3.12, albeit with a 4.24 FIP.  Then disaster struck. He blew a save at home against Milwaukee on September 3rd, and three days later surrendered another walk off home run, this time to the Padres in San Diego. At the time those losses put a halt to the Diamondbacks strong second half run, creating a sense of doom every time the bullpen gate opened. It wasn't only Kennedy blowing leads and losing games. But his September meltdown was a big part of the team's struggle down the stretch. Over his final nine games, seven innings of work he gave up 18 hits, including five homers, and 15 runs, ballooning his final ERA to 5.36 as he took seven losses and had six blown saves in just 16 chances. 

The big issue for Kennedy was that he only had one pitch, the four seam fastball, which declined slightly in velocity from 94 MPH in 2021 to 93 MPH in 2022. When he missed at all with location, he got hammered. Kennedy has now given up 30 homers in his last 121 innings spanning three seasons.

Usually when a pitcher gets ahead in the count, the hitter's numbers are much worse. But in Kennedy's case, without a secondary pitch to go after hitters even when ahead in the count, they sat on the fast balls which Kennedy frequently left in the middle of the plate. You can see the amount of damage Kennedy gave up while ahead in the count (.983 OPS against) compared to MLB average in the table below.

2023 Outlook

It's been widely speculated that the D-backs will decline the $4,000,000 option on Kennedy and pay him the $250,000 buyout instead. It should be noted that Kennedy is popular in the clubhouse and has always been accountable to teammates, coaches, and the media. He did have some good stretches in his season, despite the September falloff. If it's indeed the case that the team will be moving on, it should be remembered he's had a good career. Left with the choice of going with a lead photo showing a handshake at the end of a game or giving up a big home run, I chose the former. He gave his best.