Dallas Keuchel Is the Right Guy In the Right Place For the Twins

Throughout the 2023 season, the Minnesota Twins’ pitching staff has been one of the biggest strengths. The Twins have ranked near the top of the league in ERA for most of this year. Something has changed since the All-Star Break, though. Minnesota’s starters have posted a 5.28 ERA since the beginning of the second half. In the first half of the season, the Twins’ main problem was the offense not providing the starting staff with enough run support. But over the last few weeks, this dynamic has changed. Suddenly, the starting staff has been unable to pitch deep into games while the lineup has contributed.

After Minnesota put Joe Ryan on the 15-day IL with a groin injury, they selected Dallas Keuchel’s contract, a former Cy Young winner. Keuchel joined the Twins organization on a minor league deal in June and made six starts for the St. Paul Saints. Keuchel did very well in those starts, posting a 1.13 ERA in 32 innings pitched with 28 strikeouts. It’s obviously not realistic to expect him to return to the form he was in when he won the Cy Young in 2015 with the Houston Astros. But he could be a solid depth option in the rotation while Ryan is out.

Let’s take a closer look and see if we can figure out what he might offer the Twins while he is in the rotation.

Keuchel’s underlying stats in St. Paul will give us a better picture of his current abilities. In his six starts for the Saints, Keuchel recorded three quality starts. That tells us that not only has he done a good job of limiting runs allowed, but he also has done well at going deep into games during his brief time in Triple-A. Adding a pitcher that can go deep into games, even as just a temporary addition while Ryan is on the IL, would be hugely beneficial for Minnesota’s starting staff.

Keuchel has not pitched in the majors at all this year, so we will have to analyze his stats from previous seasons. His best year was his Cy Young season in 2015, when he won 20 games in 26 starts with a 2.48 ERA. Keuchel also had three complete games that season. He had another excellent season in 2017, finishing with a record of 14-5 and a 2.90 ERA in 23 starts. After a 2018 season in which he won 12 games with a 3.74 ERA, Keuchel signed with the Atlanta Braves. Keuchel only pitched one year in Atlanta, finishing with an 8-8 record and a 3.75 ERA.

He only spent one year in Atlanta and signed with the Chicago White Sox for the abbreviated 2020 season. Although it was a smaller sample size due to the 60-game schedule, he still had a solid year. Keuchel posted a 6-2 record with a 1.99 ERA in the 11 starts r. But his play started to decline in 2021. In his second year in Chicago, he had a 9-9 record in 30 starts. Not a bad win-loss total, however his ERA dropped sharply to 5.28.

Keuchel had his worst year as a major league pitcher last season. He bounced around between three teams, the White Sox, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Texas Rangers. He struggled with all three clubs, ending the season with a 2-9 record and a 9.20 ERA. With numbers like that, some people feel that the Twins taking are taking a huge risk on Keuchel because he is no longer in his prime at age 35.

With Minnesota’s rotation suddenly struggling after being its biggest strength all year long, they had to make changes have to be made. Since Joe Ryan is now on the IL, the Twins were likely going to have to call someone up from St. Paul. Keuchel has done quite well in his Triple-A stint. Although facing minor league opposition is obviously easier, his great numbers might mean that he is ready to make a return to the majors.

Although it’s unreasonable to expect Keuchel to return to elite status, it’s not a bad idea to give him a look. If he struggles, the Twins can try something else. But they also do not really need him to be an ace, just to do well enough to hold things down until Ryan comes back and hopefully returns to form. And who knows? Maybe Keuchel will exceed expectations in his return to the majors.