D-Backs' offseason trade pickup off to excellent start

Arizona anticipated an immediate downgrade in their outfield from Varsho to Gurriel, a tradeoff they were willing to make to install Moreno behind the plate for the next six seasons. While that could still play out, Gurriel has somewhat surprisingly been the far more productive of the two outfielders through the first couple months of the season.

Varsho has started his Toronto tenure with a .217/.294/.382 showing through 42 contests, while over his first 39 games in the desert, Gurriel is on a career-best .310/.373/.552 pace. His seven homers in 161 plate appearances already tops last year’s mark and puts him on the projected path to beat his career-best 21 longballs from two years ago.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored before this season, injuries could certainly have played a role in Gurriel’s up-and-down results from 2022. He had bookended a very strong run between June and July with dismal numbers in May and August. A hamstring strain cut his season short in early September and, likely of greater import on his production, he underwent surgery on the hamate bone in his left hand following the season. Hand and wrist injuries can sap a hitter’s strength – if Gurriel were playing through that issue for a while, it would be understandable why his power production was at a career-worst level.

Better health is a plausible explanation for some of Gurriel’s improved production, but doesn’t account for all of it. He is also working with a more dialed-in plate approach than he has in years past. Through play Wednesday, he was sitting on a personal-low 14.9 percent strikeout rate and drawing walks at a career-best 8.1 percent clip.

While Gurriel has always had good bat-to-ball skills, he has taken things to a new level in the early going by being more selective. He has offered at 45.8 percent of the pitches he has seen, the lowest rate of his career by three percentage points. Gurriel is translating that approach into consistent contact. He has gotten the bat on the ball on an excellent 85.8 percent of his swings, almost six points better than last year’s personal-berst mark. Pitchers have been unable to beat him in the zone this season, with Gurriel making contact nearly 92 percent of the time he goes after a would-be strike. He is putting the ball in play more consistently than ever before without sacrificing any of his contact authority.

That’s an ideal combination for a hitter, and to that end, Gurriel is 29th among 171 qualified batters in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging. That offense plays even without elite defense in the outfield. It is among the reasons Arizona sits at 25-19 with a +16 run differential and looks like a legitimate contender for a Wild Card spot in an uncertain National League playoff picture.

A career showing couldn’t be timed better for Gurriel, personally. He is headed to the open market this winter for the first time since he was a 23-year-old amateur signee. He will do so in advance of his age-30 season and as part of a free agent class that looks very thin on position player talent. Among potential impending free agents with 100+ plate appearances, only Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier and Max Muncy (who’s controllable for 2024 via $10M club option) have a higher wRC+ than Gurriel’s 148.

Gurriel isn’t going to be the No. 3 free agent position player in the class, but he has a chance to hit his way into a solid multi-year deal. Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto topped $35M on contracts with opt-out possibilities as bat-first corner outfielders this offseason. Both players had durability concerns that aren’t there with Gurriel. The five years and $75M secured by Andrew Benintendi feels lofty, given Benintendi’s defensive advantage and youth (he signed going into his age-28 season), but Gurriel looks like the superior hitter.

At the very least, Arizona’s new acquisition has a chance to position himself as an interesting mid-tier free agent. It remains to be seen if he can keep up his present pace over six months but he looks healthier than he did last season and is making excellent swing decisions. It is a better start than the D-Backs could have expected and a key development in the club’s strong showing early in the year.