Could Nicky Lopez supplant Orlando Arcia at shortstop for Atlanta?

One of the most hotly-contested position battles in 2023's spring training for the Atlanta Braves was at shortstop - who would Atlanta turn to as they replaced longtime defensive stalwart Dansby Swanson? The common consensus was that Braden Shewmake and Vaughn Grissom were battling for the job, but Atlanta zagged and gave the job to Swanson's backup, Orlando Arcia. 

And to top it off, Arcia also received a contract extension, signing for three years and a total of $7.3M just days before the regular season started. 

Now, after that first season with Arcia in the job, not everyone's convinced. 

Arcia's surface-level stats from 2023 seemingly paint a rosy picture: He batted .264 with 17 homers and was an All-Star, despite missing a few weeks with a microfracture in his wrist after being hit by a pitch early in the season. 

But if you dig deeper, there's some questions about long-term fit in the job for Arcia. After a hot start, he batted just .191 from August 11th through the end of the season, with more strikeouts (35) than hits (31). Most of his offensive metrics, whether his expected stats or just the inputs (exit velocity, chase rate, etc) that turn into statistical performance said he was overperforming early in the season and this was who Arcia ultimately was: A talented defender with a questionable bat that struggled to hit righties (.255 batting average) for power (.375 slug).

And then there was the trade: Atlanta went out and got talented defender Nicky Lopez from the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline. 

Could Atlanta replace Arcia with Lopez?

This is really two questions. as it's really "Is this who Orlando Arcia really is?" and "Can the Braves fix Nicky Lopez?" 

Let's take them one at a time.

Is this really who Orlando Arcia is? 

What a coincidence, our own Jake Mastroianni talked about this just yesterday! 

For the TL;DR crowd: This is who he is, and there's no reason to expect anything different. Arcia is a league-average offensive hitter at the bottom of a very good lineup. 

So the line of questioning shifts to the other player in this story: 

Can the Braves fix Nicky Lopez?

Lopez may have been moved for a journeyman reliever at the deadline, but he's had some incredible highs as recently as two season ago. 

In 2021, entrenched as the full-time starter at shortstop in the pre-Bobby Witt days, Lopez batted .300, recording 149 hits and logging 4.4 offensive WAR. Oh yeah, and he was also the best defensive shortstop in baseball - his 26 OAA was 100th percentile in MLB and he finished just one OAA behind MLB's leader, Tigers 2B Jonathan Schoop. 

While it's true Lopez never hit for much power - his career-high slugging percentage in that 2021 season was .378, and his career average slugging is only .319 - he's an amazing defender that's recently removed from being a .300 hitter across an entire season (151 games and 565 plate appearances).

So, can he get back there? 

That's a bit tougher to see happening. Lopez dramatically overperformed his expected stats in 2021, by the tune of more than 60 points. His expected slash line was .239/.329/.305, compared to his actual .300/.365/.378. 

Simply put, he just doesn't have any appreciable power to speak of. His average exit velocity is only 85.8 (compared to the MLB average of 88.4) and his other power stats - hard hit rate, barrel rate, etc. - don't look much better. Arcia has the power edge over Lopez, and that's not even a question.  

And when you dive into the 2021 season, almost all of the performance gain is due to a out-of-character surge in performance against four-seam fastballs. Every season of his career, Lopez has been a below-average fastball hitter...except 2021, when he went .327 against them. It's a remarkable single season turnaround, one that I don't think is replicable. 

So...where does that leave us? 

Orlando Arcia's your best option at shortstop right now. He raked against lefties in 2023 and was a league-average hitter otherwise, which is...normal for a #8 hitter at shortstop! 

(We've been a bit spoiled by the quality of this lineup; it's not common for MLB shortstops to hit that well as a group outside of the top studs at the position.)

Nicky Lopez is valuable to Atlanta as a do-everything defender that can literally fill-in for any player on the diamond that misses time. He's played every position in his MLB career but catcher and centerfield (and I'm confident he could quickly transition to center if needed - Tommy Edman did it last season for the Cardinals). 

Lopez is definitely the first man up if anyone misses appreciable time, but Arcia's the more valuable guy at shortstop owing to the edge his offense gives you in the lineup. And at the combination of that performance and that contract, it's a value that's very hard to beat.

Important Braves Today Offseason Stories
2023 MLB Free Agent Rankings
Current Atlanta Braves prospect rankings
Current Atlanta Braves 40-man roster
Key offseason dates for the Atlanta Braves
Projecting the 2024 Atlanta Braves' arbitration salaries