Chris Carpenter Falls Just Short Of Hall of Fame Standards

In the 2000s, few pitchers in the National League were as good and accomplished as Chris Carpenter. After a rather mediocre six-year stint with the Toronto Blue Jays, landing on the St. Louis Cardinals was the best thing that could happen to him, as he blossomed into a front-line pitcher that opposing lineups feared.

Is Carpenter a Hall of Famer? Voters certainly didn’t think so. In his first – and only – year in the ballot, he got only 0.5% of the votes, and didn’t see his name in the 2019 election process.

Carpenter certainly had some excellent numbers, individual accomplishments and was dominant for an extended period, but he seems to better fit the “Hall of the Very Good” rather than Cooperstown.

When looking at a player’s Hall of Fame case, the industry tends to look at several factors: peak performance, longevity, total stats, rate stats, individual accolades, and of course the famous “character”.

Let’s review Carpenter’s case.

Career total stats

The right-hander retired with a 144-94 record and 1,697 strikeouts. Voters have been more amenable to letting players into the Hall even if they don’t have 300 wins, 3,000 strikeuts, or 3,000 hits in the case of batters. However, those totals seem to fall short even for modern standards.

Career rate stats

A 3.76 ERA over the course of an MLB career is excellent, all things considered. However, for Hall standards, it seems a tad high. Only Red Ruffing and Jack Morris, among Hall of Famers, have a higher ERA.

Carpenter was stingy with both walks (2.54 per nine innings) and home runs (0.89 per nine), and his WHIP was a solid 1.28. None of those numbers, especially the latter, scream top-notch, HOF-worthy performance, though.

His 116 ERA+ is also solid, but not spectacular.

Peak performance

Carpenter’s peak was incredible, and we are more than willing to give him that. In a three-year span from 2004 to 2006, he posted ERAs of 3.46, 2.83, and 3.09 and accumulated 14.4 fWAR, or 4.8 per year.

He won the 2005 NL Cy Young with that 2.83 ERA over 241.2 innings, with a career-high 213 strikeouts and a league-leading seven complete games.

Carpenter basically lost 2007 and 2008 to injury, but you can say his peak extended to 2009-2011: he accumulated 12.5 fWAR, 4.16 per year. His top performance extended from 2004 to 2009, a nice, solid period in which he averaged 4-5 fWAR per campaign.

Longevity

Carp had a nice 16-year MLB career, but injuries (including elbow and shoulder ailments) certainly played a part. For a guy who stayed in MLB for that long, 2,219.1 innings seem like a low total. 

He was a workhorse when healthy, though; capable of covering most of the game with that cutter, sinker, and curveball combo of his.

Overall, and despite his relatively low innings total, he gets a lot of credit for turning his career around – first-round picks with a 4.83 ERA are often viewed as a disappointment – and for staying at the top level for 16 seasons.

Individual accolades

One of the things writers examine about potential Hall of Fame candidates is whether the player was the best of the league at his position, or part of a very exclusive group at least, at one point in his career.

In 2005, Carpenter was the best pitcher in the National League and his Cy Young award proves it. As stated, he was also excellent in that 2004-06 period and then from 2009-11.

He won not one, but two World Series with the Cardinals. Not only that, but he has a 2.00 ERA in four career Fall Classic starts.

He also went to three All-Star games, led the National League in ERA in 2009 (when he also won the NL Comeback Player of the Year award) and is a member of the Cardinals Hall of Fame.

Character

By all accounts, Carpenter was a good teammate and a fierce competitor with no public controversies. He has a flawless record in that regard, something that voters often consider.

Closing thoughts

Carpenter’s HOF case is severely affected by his Blue Jays tenure. There, he had a 4.83 ERA in 870.2 innings. Had he landed in St. Louis sooner (3.07 ERA in 1,348.2 frames), perhaps he would have had a better chance.

Injuries were also in the way: he missed a lot of time due to physical issues at various points of his career, including his peak years. That left his total stats a bit lacking for HOF standards.

As things stand, he is a perfect example of the gap there is between being a solid major leaguer and a Hall of Famer. Carpenter was excellent, but doesn’t quite belong in Cooperstown.