A closer look at Mariners' Julio Rodriguez's offensive struggles

There is a lyric in Paul Simon's "Me and Julio Down by the Schoolyard" that reads, "I don't know where I'm going. I'm on my way. I'm taking my time." 

The song not only contains Julio Rodriguez's name, but it also sums up the star outfielder's head-scratching start at the plate this season. Sometimes he seems lost, unable to catch up to fastballs he used to crush. Other times he hits a 454-foot moonshot and appears on his way back to All-Star status. 

He just seems to be taking his sweet time getting there. Through 35 games last season, his first in the big leagues, Rodriguez hit .256 with two home runs and a .319 on-base percentage. That average dipped to .205 with a .270 OBP through 35 this year. 

A positive note for Mariners fans is that Julio, along with outfielders Jarred Kelenic and Teoscar Hernandez, leads the team with seven home runs. The power is there when he makes contact, but making contact seems to elude the former Rookie of the Year in 2023.

Per Mariners beat writer Daniel Kramer at MLB.com, Rodriguez's 28.9 percent strikeout rate ranks 25th highest among 172 qualified hitters. Kramer points to an inability to handle the hard stuff, as J-Rod's .194 average against fastballs—prior to Friday's series opener against the Detroit Tigers—seems to indicate. 

The result is a struggling star who misses hittable fastballs and swings at pitches out of the zone. Kramer points out, "Jamming fastballs inside early and generating off-the-plate whiffs late is a textbook formula to thwart talented young hitters." 

Talented as he may be, Rodriguez lost his leadoff spot in the lineup before last Wednesday's matchup with the Texas Rangers. He hit sixth in a 4-3 loss, with one hit in four tries. The likelihood of Rodriguez remaining out of the top spot hinges on one of two outcomes: either his struggles continue or they're part of an extended slump that has to end at some point.

Thankfully for Mariners fans, the numbers seem to indicate the latter. When looking at the expected batting average — a Statcast metric that measures the likelihood of a batted ball becoming a hit — Rodriguez's average against fastballs jumps from .194 to .260. 

In other words, he's had some bad luck. His exit velocity is still among the best in baseball but sometimes the defense makes a better play. The game can be cruel like that. 

The silver lining to it all is that talent trumps luck more often than not. Against the Tigers, Rodriguez hit third on his way to a 3-for-5 night that included four RBIs and a two-run home run. It is a positive sign for the team's cornerstone and vibrant young leader.

Mariners fans hope the momentum continues because, unlike Paul Simon, they know exactly where this season is going if it doesn't: another postseason without the M's.