6 Reasons Why the Cubs Shouldn't Extend Ian Happ Before Opening Day

The Cubs’ farm system is loaded with talent, specifically in the outfield. From Pete Crow-Armstrong to Kevin Alcantara, and let’s not forget Brennan Davis, the Cubs’ outfield could be a juggernaut in the next two to three years.

I get it, a prospect is just a prospect until they’re not. And the odds of an organization’s top three prospects all panning out to become All-Star-caliber players are slim. But two out of three isn’t bad either. I mentioned Davis third because he’s the Cubs' number three prospect, but just last year he was number one. That’s how loaded the North Siders’ farm system is with outfield depth.

Take the potential of these three prospects, combined with others in the farm (ala Alexander Canario and Owen Caissie), and mix that with four years left of Seiya Suzuki in right field, and I don’t think the outfield will be a problem for the next few years if Happ doesn't receive an extension.

2. Show Me More

The 2022 season was Happ’s coming out party. In 158 games, the switch-hitter slashed .271/.342/.440 with 17 home runs, 42 doubles, 72 RBIs, 58 walks, and 4.4 offensive WAR. Those efforts resulted in his first National League All-Star selection and a Gold Glove Award in left field.

Happ’s 2022 numbers were excellent, and one could argue he was underrated last year. On the other hand, one could posit that 2022 may have been the best baseball we'll see from Happ. He has a solid OPS in his career (.798 average) but also possesses a 28.8 strikeout percentage. Happ's batting average has hovered around .250 during his MLB tenure, but he's only put together two 20-homer campaigns and two seasons where he hit at least 20 doubles.

I’m not saying Happ is a terrible player, but I’m also not saying he’s an MVP-caliber player either. He’s been solid, but has he been good enough to garner a multi-year, $100 million extension from the Cubs? Not before Opening Day, I don’t think.

If Happ can provide another solid and consistent season in 2023, then by all means yes, the Cubs should re-sign him next offseason. But if the Cubs decide during the season that a long-term pact isn't in the cards, they could look to move him at the trade deadline. And if Happ has a down year and it looks like the best he’s going to offer are his 2022 numbers, then no, the Cubs shouldn’t extend him. That money should be saved for…

3. Shohei Ohtani

If there’s any team that does not get on the phone with Shohei Ohtani’s agent next offseason to, at the very least, see what the asking price is, then that club's owner should be banished from baseball. I don’t care if a bottom-of-the-barrel team like the Cincinnati Reds doesn’t win a single game in 2023, giving Ohtani no reason to even think about remotely coming close to that god-awful team in Ohio, you at least pick up the phone and ask.

With that being said, Tom Ricketts and co. have the resources to provide a substantial offer to the once-in-a-lifetime talent in Ohtani. Have you looked at his Baseball-Reference page recently?

In his five-year career, he has averaged 36 home runs, 29 doubles, six triples, 19 stolen bases, 98 RBIs, a .886 OPS, 139 OPS+, and 3.9 WAR per season. Those stats alone are enough for the Japanese star to garnish a massive deal when he hits free agency at the end of the season, but that’s not all. Since recovering from Tommy John surgery and returning to the mound in 2021, Ohtani has thrown nearly 300 innings with a 2.70 ERA, 375 strikeouts, a 11.4 K/9, 156 ERA+, 2.89 FIP, and an average 5.2 WAR. And oh yeah, he’ll only be 29 years old at the end of the season.

Could Ricketts and Jed Hoyer work something out to try to get Ohtani in Cubs’ pinstripes next offseason? It’s too soon to tell, but at the very least, they have to pick up the phone and make an offer. With rumors swirling that Ohtani’s asking price could be somewhere near $500 million, the Cubs would not be able to retain Ian Happ if they did sign the Japanese phenom. But that’s okay. I think most fans would be just fine with losing Happ to free agency if it helped bring the greatest baseball player on the planet currently to the North Side.

But if they miss out on the Ohtani sweepstakes, it won’t be the end of the world. Especially if…

4. Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger was a surprise offseason pickup for the Cubs, but he represents a potential threat if he can bring back some of the boom he displayed earlier in his career.

From 2017 to 2019, the lefty center fielder averaged 37 home runs, 29 doubles, 96 RBIs, a .278 batting average, and a .928 OPS per season. Add in his 2017 NL Rookie of the Year and 2019 NL MVP awards, and Bellinger certainly has the potential to be a game-changer for the Cubs.

Sure, he hasn’t been his earlier self these past few years. A .210/.265/.389 slash line in 2022 didn’t help his case. His 29 home runs and .193 batting average in his last two seasons aren’t pretty either, but if Belli can find his old self again and prove he’s still an MVP-caliber player, he could be the Cubs' x-factor that helps them compete for a division title.

I know it’s a big “if”, but here’s the thing: Bellinger’s 2017-2019 run was remarkable and is far more impressive than any three-year span that Happ has had so far in his career. If Bellinger can come anywhere close to that version of himself, I’m calling him before Happ next offseason if I’m Jed Hoyer. Missing out on Ohtani would stink, but re-signing a Bellinger should he return to elite form wouldn’t be a bad second choice.

If Bellinger doesn’t work out in Chicago this season, in two years there will be another All-Star outfielder that will hit the free-agent market...

5. Juan Soto

Juan Soto will arguably go down as one of the greatest left-handed hitters to ever pick up a baseball bat by the time he retires. Hell, last year was considered a down year for him and he still had 27 home runs and an .853 OPS.

The end of the 2024 MLB season will see the second biggest free agent to ever hit the market (just behind Ohtani next offseason) unless the San Diego Padres extend Soto before then. But with Scott Boras as his agent, it seems he will more than likely test the free-agent waters.

There’s a good chance Soto will cost a team at least $400 million for his services, and Hoyer should offer him every penny of it. Ian Happ is a great player, and the Cubs have several outfield prospects with All-Star potential, but let's face it: none of them compare to Soto. If going after the former Washington National in two years means not being able to re-sign Happ to a multi-year deal this offseason, so be it.

Soto is the type of superstar that the Cubs have been looking for ever since the core from the 2016 World Series Championship team was traded away. Between Soto and Suzuki, who’s already set in right field, plus the possibility of Crow-Aromstrong, Alcantara, and Davis joining the Cubs’ lineup in the not-too-distant future, that leaves no room for Happ.

Unless Happ has another All-Star season and finds himself in the hunt for NL MVP honors, the Cubs shouldn't be in a hurry to lock him up. However, if I was going to dash to the bank to extend anyone on this current Cubs team right now, it would be…

6. Nico Hoerner

Every passing day that Nico Hoerner doesn't have a contract extension in hand is another day that sees his price increase. Coming off a near-full 2022 season, Hoerner did not disappoint. In 135 games, he shlashed .281/.327/.410 with 10 home runs, 22 doubles, five triples, 55 RBIs, and 20 stolen bases while playing solid defense at shortstop.

With the Cubs signing Dansby Swanson this offseason, Hoerner jumps over to second base where he could easily become the starting second baseman for the NL All-Star Team and capture the Gold Glove Award. Which NL second baseman is better than Hoerner right now? I can’t think of anyone.

At just 25 years old, Hoerner provides the ability to play multiple positions (including shortstop), speed on the basepaths, and the potential to be a younger version of Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner. If there’s one player on the Cubs’ current roster I'd extend before Opening Day, it’s Hoerner.

I’m sure there are Cubs fans that will be yelling at their screens because of my “slandering of Ian Happ,” but let’s face it: there are a few other options out there that need to be considered first.

Happ is a good player and a fan favorite. But if the Cubs are going to offer him a substantial multi-year deal for the foreseeable future, then I think he needs to prove that last year’s All-Star season isn’t the best baseball we’re going to get out of him, but instead just the beginning of something bigger to come.