Golf best bets: Outright picks for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The PGA Tour moves up the California coast this week for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and we're excited to see some familiar faces back in the fold. Rory McIlroy, who hasn't played a PGA Tour event since last year's Tour Championship, is the +750 betting favorite to win in his season debut. He's followed by Scottie Scheffler (+800), Viktor Hovland (+1000) and Xander Schauffele (+1600) on the odds board. 

As usual, we're bypassing the top of the board with our three outright selections for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Justin Thomas (+2500 FanDuel)

Justin Thomas is coming off a disappointing 2023 season in which he missed the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the first time in his career, but he's starting to look like JT we know and love. Over his last four worldwide starts, Thomas has finished T3, solo third, solo fourth and solo fifth. He also gained strokes on approach and around the green in all four starts.

The key stats to keep in mind for Pebble Beach are strokes gained: approach because of the small greens, strokes gained: around the green for the same reason and putting on poa annua greens. Thomas checks the box for all three, and he's playing his best golf in more than a year. 

Ludvig Aberg (+2800 ESPN BET)

We're not going to be shy about betting Ludvig Aberg this season. The supremely talented youngster is a ball-striking wizard who's gained strokes off the tee and on approach in nine of his last 10 starts. He's coming off a T9 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, and he could've contended for a win had he not three-jacked from three feet on the 13th hole in the second round.

Despite a few shaky misses, Aberg still gained strokes putting on Torrey Pines' poa annua greens for the week. That's a great sign heading into one of the toughest putting tests on Tour. If he can clean up those short misses, his exceptional ball striking should carry him to contention on Sunday afternoon. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+12000 FD)

It's the year of the triple-digit bomb on the PGA Tour, as all four winners since the start of 2024 were priced at higher than 100/1. It'd be foolish not to include one on our outright card this week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is known as a great putter who struggles with consistent ball striking, but he's been flushing his irons of late. The South African has gained more than 11 true strokes on approach over his last six rounds of golf, and he has four top-10 finishes over his last seven starts.

Bezuidenhout finished T14 in his lone start at Pebble Beach in 2022, and he gained nearly eight true strokes putting in only two rounds on the main course. He's worth a sprinkle at 120/1.