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• Mark Teixeira A Retrospective: And how the Braves contributed greatly to the Rangers success

  November 26, 2011

  Today, I would like to look back at a trade that had a major effect on the last two World Series, as well as, analyze the horrible mismanagement of Mark Teixeira by the Atlanta Braves.  In 2007, the Atlanta Braves were a contender with an excessive two young stud catchers (Brian McCann and Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and a need for one more power bat in their lineup.  So at the ’07 trading deadline the Braves sent Saltalamacchia along with prospects shortstop Elvis Andrus, pitchers Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz, and Beau Jones in exchange for left handed reliever Ron Mahay and powerful first baseman Teixeira.  The Braves finished in third place in the NL East in ’07, despite Teixeira and Mahay putting up big numbers.  On the other hand, Saltalamacchia did nothing for Texas, a non-contender, while the other 4 prospects continued to develop in a new minor league system.

   At the 2008 trading deadline the Braves were nowhere near playoff position (Mahay left after 2007), and with Teixeira becoming a free agent at the end of the season, he was a commodity they could not afford.  Thus, Atlanta accepted a package of first baseman Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stephen Marek, from the Los Angeles Angels for Teixeira.  The Angels made the playoffs, but Teixeira was not able to help them get over the hump and win the World Series.  Teixeira left the Angels in free agency for the pinstripes of New York. 

   At the 2009 trading deadline, the Braves traded Kotchman to the Boston Red Sox for first baseman Adam LaRoche.  After two months of service in Atlanta, LaRoche, also left for free agency, signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Thus, Stephen Marek, who has yet to make the major leagues is the only player left with the Braves, who was involved in all of these deadline deals.  The Rangers on the other hand have retained almost everyone involved in the original Teixeira trade.  Ironically, the original “gem” of the prospect package, Saltalamacchia, is the one no longer with the club.  In 2010, Texas traded Saltalamacchia to Boston for minor leaguers Chris McGuinness, Roman Mendez, Michael Thomas, and cash.  So what has become of the other four prospects that are still with Texas?

   Beau Jones is still idling in the Rangers minor league system, but the other three players happen to be household names, in 2011.  Texas has now won back-to-back American League championships.  And Matt Harrison, Elvis Andrus, and Nefalti Feliz have been big pieces in both World Series appearances, especially in 2011.  Harrison started Game 7 of ’11 World Series, Andrus was the starting shortstop for both A.L. championship teams, and Feliz, no thanks to Nelson Cruz, was one strike away from closing out a World Series championship in Game 6 before blowing that game.  Thus, you could say Texas got some serious value out of trading Teixeira, especially when you consider how little Atlanta got in return for Teixeira’s services only one season later.  But just how much value did the three teams Teixeira played for get out of these deals?

   Between 2007-08, Atlanta received 6.4 wins (WAR) from Mahay, Teixeira, and Kotchman, and spent $12.2 million for those players.  The Angels received 3.6 wins from Teixeira, in the short time he was with the team, in 2008 and paid out $5 million to the first baseman.  While the other player spent time in the minors, The Rangers received a combined .5 WAR from Saltalamacchia and Harrison from ’07-’08 and spent just under $1 million.  In 2009, Kotchman put up 0.9 wins for Atlanta, before being traded for LaRoche who added 1.8 wins for the Braves, the two players made $4.56 million combined.  Saltalamacchia, Feliz, Andruz, and Harrison combined for 5.4 wins for only $1.6 million for Texas, in 2009.  In 2010, the same four players combined for 4 WAR and the Rangers spent $1.5 million.  And in 2011, three major players in the World Series, as mentioned earlier, made only $1.32 million and accumulated a whopping 9.7 wins. 

   Thus, when these numbers are aggregated the true impact of the “Teixeira trades” is very evident, and Texas is the clear winner.  The players involved accumulated 9.1 WAR for Atlanta for $16.76 million, the Angels received 3.6 wins in exchange for $5 million, and Texas has received (with more to come) 19.6 WAR for only $5.37 million.  These numbers calculated for $/WAR, the Braves spent $1.84 million per win, Los Angeles spent $1.4 million per win, and the Rangers spent 274k per win, for the players involved in these trades.  There were many factors that lead to the Rangers reaching the World Series two seasons in a row, but trading Mark Teixeira in 2007, is an interesting factor, that in my opinion was a major factor, adding three huge members of their AL Championship teams.

  

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• Edwin Jackson: The Best Value Starter on the Market?

  November 03, 2011

  Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish, CJ Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Grady Sizemore, Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, and Jonathon Papelbon. By now, most of the sports world is aware of what these players have in common. They will all be the major free agents on the baseball’s market, in the coming months. These players have been the ones getting the most media coverage, but there is one free agent, for a reason unbeknownst to me that is flying underneath most expert’s radar, who should be valued higher than many of these free agents. The player I am referring to is starting pitcher Edwin Jackson. Jackson, has played for 6 MLB teams, yet is only 28 years old, he has thrown one of the ugliest no hitters of all time, I could nearly make an entire 25-man roster with the players he has been traded for, and he won a world series just a short week ago with the St. Louis Cardinals. Jackson’s movement is joked about and discussed a lot on the blogosphere, (the Jackson for Daniel Hudson deal, has been discussed in great detail on this blog), but his value as a free agent seems to be ignored.

  CJ Wilson is receiving most of the free agent starting pitching attention, which will most likely lead to him being overpaid for, possibly a deal over 5 year/$100 million range. Many believe the market drops off from there, and these “experts” have Mark Buehrle and Hiroki Kuroda ranked next, but when the numbers are analyzed is Jackson the most viable option? Jackson is the youngest of the four pitchers, 28 (Wilson will be 31, Buehrle will be 33, and Kuroda will be 37). Over the last three seasons, Jackson has averaged a WAR of 3.7, Wilson has an average WAR of 4.2, Buehrle sits at 3.5, and Kuroda’s average is 2.9. Based on WAR, Jackson is the second best free agent option for a starting pitcher, to take it a step further I’ll analyze the four pitchers xFIP over this same span of time. Jackson’s xFIP ranks third (3.92) behind Kuroda (3.54) and Wilson (3.56), but ahead of Buehrle (4.28). Jackson’s numbers are solid and consistent, he has yet to miss a start in five seasons as a full-time major league starter. While Wilson only has two seasons as a starter under his belt, while they were spectacular (his 5.9 WAR last season ranked 7^th amongst starters) he still has three years less experience than Jackson.

  If over the next 5 seasons, Jackson does not progress or regress and continues to average a WAR of 3.7 (I would postulate that a 28 year old former super prospect would improve as he crosses the 30 mark), what would he be worth to the team who signs him? Based on Fangraphs’ value measure ($4.5 million per WAR), with a team being smart and paying him based on this number, and not taking into account that the market will be inflated in five seasons to a point that one win will be worth more than $4.5 million, they should give Jackson a 5 year/$82.5 million contract. That type of deal, is almost “Wilson money” and I would bet many experts would say there is no way an “inconsistent” starter like Jackson is worth it. Jered Weaver and Justin Verlander, recently, have signed similar deals (they would have made much more on the open market). Jackson is not as valuable as Weaver or Verlander, but he is worth almost the money they're paid. Jackson will most likely sign a 3 to 4 year deal in the range of $8 to 11 million per season, which would mean he would be highly underpaid. And any team in need of an above average 3^rd or 4^th starter would not regret getting a deal on Jackson.

  If I was running a baseball team and had around $12-15 million to work with in free agency this offseason, Edwin Jackson would be the guy, who I would invest in. Jackson does have Scott Boras as his agent, and its highly possible Boras will inflate Jackson’s ability and worth to something higher than I just laid out, thus he will be “overpaid” for, but I feel as though that is unlikely. A 28 year-old, who has pitched in both leagues, pitched in the postseason/World Series, and still has potential to get better, will be worth every penny, that a team decides to spend on him this winter. Sign Edwin Jackson.

  

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• Jerry Dipoto: The Angels' New General Manager

  November 02, 2011

  After the dismissal of Tony Reagins as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim’s general manager a few days after the season’s end, the Angels were in hot pursuit for a new G.M.  Reagins’ regime was more known for his failures (does Mike Napoli for Vernon Wells ring a bell for anyone?) then his success (two division titles and an ALCS appearance in 2009).  Many experts began to blame Mike Scioscia, for being the Angels’ pseudo G.M. and having an overarching hand in all moves.  Which is why many believed that the Angels would not hire a moneyball-type general manager, who would not be able to make the moves he would like to with the Scioscia road-block in his way.  But, after Scioscia came out and said he had very little influence on the moves of the general manager, and could not possibly do both jobs, only gave his opinions (which all managers in baseball do), the likelihood seemed more probable. 

  On Saturday, the Angels hired the Diamondbacks’ senior vice president of scouting and player development and former interim GM of Arizona, Jerry Dipoto.  Dipoto would be considered a moneyball guy, coming from a small-market team like Arizona, who had success with an extremely small budget this offseason, as well as, a member of Theo Epstein’s famous 2004 moneyball front office.  It is tough to analyze how good a general manager Dipoto will be with Anaheim, because its difficult to understand how much influence he had on the decisions made when he was not the head guy for the clubs he worked for.  The only hard evidence analysis that can be done on Dipoto’s ability as a general manager would be to analyze the brief time he spent as the interim GM for the D-backs at the end of the 2010 season.  He became the interim GM on July 1^st, and Kevin Towers was then hired in late September to take over running the club. .  Thus, Dipoto only has around 3 months of experience as a GM and only one month in which he actually had the opportunity to make non-waiver trades.

  While interim GM, Dipoto made four trades in the month of July (WAR for each player after their deal).  The first was unloading costly ace Dan Haren (8.4) to the Angels (his new team) in exchange for lefty starter Joe Saunders (1.9), and minor league pitchers Tyler Skraggs, Rafael Rodriguez, and Patrick Corbin.  Haren has made $25 million over two seasons since the deal, and will make this much after $15.5 million the Angels exercise his option for 2013.  While, Saunders only made around $6 million since the deal.  The next deal Dipoto was able to pull off has been discussed many times on this blog, but this will be the first time Dipoto will be praised for the deal (instead of criticizing Kenny Williams for it).  Dipoto sent his other costly (over $10 million since the deal) starter Edwin Jackson (5.8) to the Chicago White Sox for young phenom Daniel Hudson (6.9) and minor league pitcher David Holmberg.  In 2011, Daniel Hudson became a bona-fide ace helping lead the Diamondbacks to the playoffs, posting a xFIP of 3.88 and WAR of 4.9, while only making $419,000.   Meanwhile Jackson made almost $9 million, and was traded at the deadline again, and ended up winning a World Series with St. Louis.  The other two trades that Dipoto has under his belt, were lower in profile and less relevant than the first two moves.  Dipoto traded Chris Snyder (0.9), who made $6.25 million in 2011 and Pedro Ciriaco to Pittsburgh for Bobby Crosby, Ryan Church, and DJ Carrasco.  This may have not been the best move, seeing as Crosby, Church and Carrasco never really performed for Arizona, but Dipoto rectified the move by releasing Crosby and recalling future 2011 star Ryan Roberts, in August of 2010.  As well as, Snyder is a costly catcher, while Miguel Montero performed beautifully at the position for half the price.  The final trade, Dipoto made was sending underachieving reliever Chad Qualls (-0.2) to Tampa Bay for a player to be named later, who became, right handed pitcher Matt Grogen (who had tommy john surgery and missed the 2011 season).  Dipoto was able to trade some of the team’s highest paid players in exchange for talented youth, and some serious minor league pitching depth.

  The four trades Dipoto made while GM were essentially a fire sale of assets, for a mid-level payroll team in last place.  Most of the moves were good (especially the Jackson trade for Hudson) and if Skraggs turns out the way he is projected, the Haren deal could still be a good move.  Now, Dipoto can’t be given all the credit for the Diamondbacks move from last to first from 2010-2011, while cutting $7 million in payroll, he deserves some credit, and he was Towers main advisor, for the rest of the moves that solidified Arizona as a playoff team.  Its unlikely that in 2012, Dipoto will be sitting in a similar position at the trading deadline with the Angels.  He will most likely be on the buyer end of the market, yet it will be interesting to see how creative he can be this offseason and at the deadline next year, because he is used to working with a limited budget.  His budget has now doubled in Anaheim, while much of this budget is already locked into seemingly immovable costly veterans (Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, etc.), he still has room for many possibilities to improve a team who just missed the playoffs despite having baseball’s fourth highest payroll.  And from what we have seen so far, Dipoto has the talent to sculpt a big budget ballclub into a perennial winner.

  

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• Why the Diamondbacks will win the West.

  September 02, 2011

  How could the San Francisco Giants have over double the Diamondbacks payroll yet sit six games back of them in the N.L. West standings, going into this weekend’s crucial matchup in San Francisco? The defending champions have faltered this season because of a lack of successful solutions to fixing their offensive woes. Their only hitter with an above 2 WAR is Pablo Sandoval (3.9), and even with their pitching that’s impossible to overcome.

  The Giants also only have 4 hitters with a WAR over 1. It’s impossible to win a division when the team’s batting lineup cannot score any runs no matter how good their pitching is. The Giants have pumped over 45 million dollars into their starting rotation this season, but have failed in all of their attempts to buy offense to support that starting pitching.

  Many would be surprised to know that the Diamondbacks payroll is lower than the Florida Marlins, which is second lowest in the National League. Their entire team makes just 8 million dollars more than just the Giants starting rotation. However, the Diamondbacks are making the right decisions with their money. No player on the Diamondbacks makes 6 million dollars (that is 1/3 of Barry Zito’s salary for this season). Yet the Diamondbacks have a legitimate offense and their pitching can match up with that of the Giants

  Diamondbacks team batting WAR is 26.7 or third in the N.L. and first among teams in the N.L. that are in the playoff picture. The Giants have the worst batting WAR in the N.L. at 11.4. The Giants are second in the N.L. in pitching WAR at 21, while the Diamondbacks are 5^th at 13.8.

  The Diamondbacks have 5 hitters with a WAR over 3, which could make up for all those games Arizona is up in the standings. The Diamondbacks have been able to develop their offense, Justin Upton (6.3 WAR), Chris Young (3.6), Miguel Montero (3.6), Geraldo Parra (3.2) are all products of Arizona’s farm system. Stephen Drew (1.9) is homegrown as well, but the D-backs lost him for the season. However, they’ve been able to survive this injury, unlike the Giants’ ability to deal with Carlos Beltran and Brian Wilson going down.

  Arizona has also done a good job of making moves to acquire cheap youthful talented players, like Ryan Roberts (3.6), Daniel Hudson (4.3), Ian Kennedy (3.5), and David Hernandez (1.3). These four players make a combined 1.7 million dollars this season for a combined WAR of 12.7; that is ridiculous. Moving Edwin Jackson in exchange for Daniel Hudson, overpaid Mark Reynolds for David Hernandez, Max Scherzer for Ian Kennedy, and signing Ryan Roberts to a minor league deal in ’09, as well as, player development have made the Diamondbacks a viable contender.

  Arizona is proof that a team without a payroll the size of the Phillies and Giants in the N.L., can be extremely competitive when they make the right moves with the little money they have.

  

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• Desert Duo: The Best (Economic) Pitching Tandem in Baseball

  August 10, 2011

  In baseball, there was a time when having one ace starting pitcher in a rotation was good enough, and having two made a team very formidable. In 2011, it is not good enough to only have one main workhorse, having two aces leading the way is the only way. Similar to football, where the two running-back system has become big, baseball has shown that in order to win not only in the regular season, but also in the playoffs having a solid 1-2 punch is critical. This was proven in the World Series last season, both representatives, the Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants, had two aces (Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson for Texas and Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain for San Francisco).

  Major League Baseball, like any other sport, is a copycat league, for this reason, free agent pitching has become a hot commodity, with teams shelling out big bucks in hope to get their very own pair of aces. Now big market ball clubs hold most of the top pitching tandems, owing millions of dollars to their rotation leaders. With the playoff stretch upon us, and the playoffs looming very soon, there is much debate across baseball of which team has the best 1-2 punch. Thus, I decided to use WAR (Wins over replacement player), FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), and total salary to analyze the 11 top pitching tandems to decide which team has the best 1-2 punch (economically) in baseball.

  The Red Sox’ Beckett and Lester have been solid but not above average, luck has for sure been on their side this season, the highest FIP on this list and with their combined salaries of 22.75 million their value as a 1-2 punch sits at the bottom. Tampa Bay has a rotation bolstered by two aces in David Price and James Shields. These guys eat serious innings for the Rays, but they have the 2^nd lowest WAR and FIP of the 11 “punches” analyzed. The Rangers have been lead this season by a couple of youthful starters in CJ Wilson and Alexi Ogando. They are both good, but not as strong as what Texas had last season or as some of the other frontline starters in baseball. The Mariners’ Pineda and Hernandez have been good, but not stellar. They get held back on this list by Hernandez’ contract and Pineda faltering of late.

  Justin Verlander has been unhittable this year (literally and figuratively), but Ricky Porcello is not what you would call a top-end number 2 guy in this conversation, thus, the Tigers do not have a top 5 1-2 punch in their rotation. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are always among the first pitchers to come to mind in a conversation about the best top of rotation guys for a while now. They delivered the Giants a World Series last year, and they have thanked them by not performing up to their standards of past years, as well as, now making a combined $21 million dollars this season. Lincecum and Cain have no business having the same combined WAR as Porcello and Verlander, and are only higher on this list, because of their 3^rd lowest combined FIP.

  C.C. Sabathia gives the Yankees one of baseball’s best #1’s, and if not for his otherworldly 24 million dollar salary and lack of number 2 starter the Yankees would surely have a higher spot than just 5^th best. Bartolo Colon delivers good value for them at 900k a year but not enough to compete with the likes of the Phillies, Angels, and Diamondbacks. Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw have an extremely low combined FIP of below 6 (5.91), and Kershaw has a nearly negligible salary. However, neither is a true workhorse, with 300.1 innings between them not a huge workload, as well as, a combined WAR of 7.1, which is only baseball’s 6^th best. These facts keep the Dodgers from breaking into top 3 of best 1-2 punches in baseball.

  The Phillies’ combination of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee share the best numbers of this group with the Angels Dan Haren and Jered Weaver. Philadelphia’s starters have a unworldly combined FIP of below 5 at 4.93. No other team in baseball can boast of having two starters who combine for a lower FIP than that. And with a combined WAR of 10.4, the Phillies top two guys have numbers that are both bona fide and ridiculous. They are only number 3 on my list of best top starting pitching tandems; however, because baseball is a business. Thus, numbers should be looked at from not only a statistical point of view, but also an economic point of view, which is Lee and Halladay’s downfall. Together they make the most money on this list at 31 million dollars this season, which detracts from their value significantly enough to keep them from being number 1 overall (as most think they are).

  Dan Haren and Jered Weaver have created more wins this season (10.5) than any other combination of teammates in baseball. They have the second lowest FIP also, that only trail that of the Phillies. Combined their salaries are about equal to that of Roy Halladay’s and are less than that of Sabathia in New York. The Angels’ top guys have put up better numbers than their big name West Coast pitching tandem rival in San Francisco for less money. Economically, Weaver and Haren make more sense than Halladay and Lee, when looking at the tandems with the best numbers. But why then are the Angels not the top pitching tandem on this list?

  The answer to that question comes out of the desert heat of Arizona. The Diamondbacks have made a lot of large trades in the past seasons. Through those trades they acquired two of 2011’s best pitchers, two guys who have been aces, but do not get very much attention playing out in Phoenix. Words, that I would use, to describe Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy would be raw, talented, incomparable economically, and just plain filthy. By sheer statistics the Diamondbacks starters sit around the level of the Tigers’ and Dodgers’ tandems just outside the top 5. Ranking 7^th with a combined (6.52) FIP, and 5^th in WAR (7.1). There is one gigantic difference between the Arizona duo in comparison to the 10 other combinations that were analyzed, and that is in the money being paid to them. Excluding the Diamondbacks the range in total salary for the tandems is from just over 6 million (Rays) to 31 million (Phillies), with mean of almost 17 million dollars being shelled out for two bonafide ace starting pitchers.

  The reason for why the Diamondbacks were excluded from the range and average total salary, is because the total salary for Hudson and Kennedy is an outlier on this list. The Diamondbacks’ aces are being paid a total of $842,000 for their more than average services this season. Ironically, the Phillies two aces, Halladay and Lee, make almost 37 times what Kennedy and Hudson are paid. C.C. Sabathia, the highest paid pitcher in baseball, makes 29 times as much as the two pitchers do combined. On the free agent market, its near impossible to sign a viable ace for any less than 10 million dollars per season. This is what makes the Diamondbacks 1-2 punch so remarkable. To have two aces, together, making under a million dollars this year make the Desert Duo a(n) (economic) no-brainer for the best 1-2 pitching tandem in baseball.

  Stats as of August 8th,

  Duo/Total Salary/Total FIP/Total/WAR Value

  D-Backs/$842,000/6.52/7.1/0.58

  Angels/$20,115,000/5.3/10.5/0.22

  Phillies/$31,000,000/4.93/10.4/0.15

  Dodgers/$6,775,000/6.06/6.9/0.10

  Giants/$21,333,333/5.71/8.1/0.09

  Yankees/$25,185,714/6.04/8.1/0.07

  Tigers/$14,386,000/6.55/7.5/0.06

  Mariners/$12,114,000/6.36/6.7/0.02

  Rangers/$7,430,150/6.67/6.6/-0.01

  Rays/$6,334,671/6.76/6.4/-0.05

  Red Sox/$22,750,000/7.11/5.6/-0.06

  

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